Urgent Morning Update – Blizzard Increasing In Probability
Last night’s update was complicated by the 0z model guidance, which aside from the 0z ECM noticeably shifted southeast with the coastal low; as of last night, there was enough confidence to mention that there was still a possibility that phasing could take earlier with major snowfall extending into NYC, but not enough confidence to fully forecast this scenario. As of this morning, the model guidance continues to correct towards this solution, and at this time there is enough confidence to raise snow accumulations across the area.
As this is a morning update, this will remain brief, with more information to be posted this afternoon. The main factors that could result in lower totals than expected are more mixing with rain/sleet before the changeover to snow, or a slightly further east coastal low which would keep the heaviest snows further east initially. These areas of uncertainty will be addressed in more details later today. Below is the revised forecast for the area, which will be expanded with more information later today: