Today marked the start of a much warmer than average week across the region with widespread highs in the low to mid 40s observed. Temperatures will continue to warm up over the next two days, peaking in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday in NYC. After a slight cool down on Thursday and Friday, along with a light rain event on Friday, warm temperatures are expected again for the weekend with 50s in parts of the area, with this round of unseasonable warmth ending on Sunday or Monday with a cold front moving through, which will cool temperatures down but will fail to produce a colder than average pattern for the region.
This Week: Warmer Than Average; Rainy End
A high pressure that was over the region today will continue to slide to the southeast, with light southwest winds expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures than those of today. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected for both days with highs on Tuesday reaching the mid to upper 40s across most of the area and the upper 40s to low 50s on Wednesday. Parts of the immediate NYC area are likely to approach 55 degrees.
A cold front will move through on Wednesday night as a weak low pressure in southern Canada moves offshore, becoming a strong low pressure in the Atlantic. A weak trough will quickly move through the region with NW winds expected on Thursday, but temperatures will fail to cool down by much, peaking in the low to mid 40s inland and mid to possibly upper 40s for the rest of the area. By Friday, a shortwave will move through the region; there continue to be differences with the model guidance regarding whether this moves east through the area and then southeast into the Atlantic as the ECM shows, or continues NE into Canada as the GFS shows, although there is an overall consensus for higher rain totals from about NYC and further north. Occasional showers are expected throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 40s across the area.
Medium Range: Warmer Weekend, Cooler Next Week
Warmer temperatures will return into the region for Saturday and Sunday as a strong ridge builds over the East, with significantly warmer than average temperatures expected. Despite 850mb temperatures near or slightly over 10C, surface temperatures won’t get as warm as they could be with the warmest temperatures staying SW of the area. Partly cloudy skies are expected with highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area, although there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact high temperatures, and this could be several degrees warmer. While these highs are still notably warmer than average, overnight lows will also play a role in ensuring this time frame is much warmer than average – low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30s and 40s across the area, which is even warmer than the average high temperatures.
A cold front will approach the region on Sunday and Monday with increased cloud cover and occasional showers. This will fail to bring a significant cool down into the region, however; the cold front will be relatively weak and will slow down over the region given persistent ridging near the eastern US, with temperatures cooling down but remaining warmer than average. Another storm may affect the region mid-late next week.