Jan 26, 2013: Wintry Mix Monday, Then Warm

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night’s light snow event, less cloud cover was observed with breezy winds. Temperatures were colder than average again, peaking in the mid to upper 20s across the area, marking the 5th consecutive day temperatures failed to rise above 30 degrees in Central Park. High temps will continue to rise on Sunday and Monday, with widespread light snow, sleet and freezing rain expected on Monday, ahead of a brief yet strong warm up with temperatures rising to nearly 60 degrees on Wednesday.

Tonight – Monday: Warming Up; Wintry Mix Expected Monday

Cold overnight lows are expected again across the area, dropping into the upper 0s to low 10s inland and the low to mid 10s elsewhere except for NYC and parts of Long Island, in the mid to upper 10s. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday with highs reaching the upper 20s to low 30s inland and the low to mid 30s across the rest of the area, the warmest temperatures since last Monday when temperatures reached 32 degrees in NYC.

The cold air mass will be removed from the region on Monday as a warm front approaches, producing widespread light to moderate precipitation across the region. Most of the snow will stay north of the area, although a wintry mix is still expected. Temperatures will initially start out cold enough to support light snow from the mid morning through early afternoon hours across the area, with accumulations generally under 1/2 inch except for northernmost parts of the area. By the mid afternoon hours, temperatures aloft at 850mb will warm up above freezing, but surface temperatures will remain below freezing north and west of NYC. As a result, a changeover to rain is expected for NYC and Long Island, with sleet and freezing rain for northern NJ, SE NY and southern CT, which will change over to rain later overnight as temperatures gradually warm up to and above freezing. Most locations that observe freezing rain are likely to see amounts under 0.10 inch, with locations towards NW NJ and interior SE NY potentially reaching 0.10 inch. Stay tuned for more information on this snow/ice potential.

Next Week: Much Warmer, Heavy Rain/Wind, Then Colder

By Monday night, temperatures will warm up enough for precipitation type to fall as rain across the area. Mainly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected for Tuesday with warmer temperatures, peaking in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. As a stronger low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes region, a much warmer air mass will move in with 850mb temperatures rising above 10C, with breezy SSW winds expected. Much warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday, reaching the low to mid 50s north and east of NYC and the mid to upper 50s from NYC and further east. With the low pressure in the Great Lakes region moving towards Canada, a cold front will move through the area on Wednesday night, producing heavy rain, likely near/over an inch, and strong wind gusts, potentially up to or above 50 mph.

Colder temperatures will return behind the cold front as a trough returns to the East. A trough is expected to remain over the East through the medium-long range, with a mostly dry pattern mostly consisting of minor snow events, one of them possibly on Friday and/or next weekend.