Jan 17, 2013: Mild Weekend, Cold Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Another storm stayed south of the area, with isolated rain/snow showers observed in Long Island. This storm will continue to move offshore tonight, with mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures returning for Friday. Temperatures will warm back up into the 40s this weekend with sunshine, although a cold front will bring a strong yet temporary cold air mass into the region, with the coldest temperatures of the winter so far expected.



Friday – Weekend: Cold, Then Mild

The storm that affected the region today had its main impacts limited to the southern Mid Atlantic, where heavy snow was observed in some locations. The low pressure will continue to slide offshore tonight, although cloud cover should persist with isolated snow showers possible later tonight. Skies will clear on Friday with highs only peaking in the upper 20s across the area with a few low 30s near NYC.

With a low pressure moving into northern New England, a southwest flow will return for Saturday with partly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 40s across the area; parts of the immediate NYC area may pass 45 degrees. The warmer temperatures for the weekend are only temporary, however, as a cold front moves through the area on Sunday. Highs are still likely to rise into the low to mid 40s, however, especially for central and eastern parts of the area, with a stronger west/WNW wind developing as the coldest temperatures of the winter so far make their way into the region.

Next Week: Much Colder

A strong trough will settle over the region for most of next week, resulting in the first sustained period of colder than average temperatures since November. There are several factors that will prevent temperatures from getting too cold, including occasional cloud cover and a few weak clipper systems moving through the region with increased clouds and scattered snow showers, as well as a lack of widespread snow cover across the region. Highs are generally expected to be in the 20s, with a few areas peaking in the low 30s on Monday. On the coldest day next week, interior areas may struggle to reach and/or pass 20 degrees. Lows are expected to be in the 10s for most of the area, with interior areas in the 10s and single digits; how cold temperatures get largely depends on what day of the week has the least amount of cloud cover.

As tomorrow’s pattern outlook will discuss, however, this strong cold air mass will be only temporary, lifting out of the region as ridging in the western US weakens. Another storm is likely to approach the region towards next Friday or next weekend. At this time most models keep this well north of the area with rain and mild temperatures; it is possible to see this adjust further south and colder for the area, although it is too far out to determine how likely it is to produce snow across the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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