Jan 13, 2013: Light Rain/Snow Possible Tues-Weds

Forecast Highlights:

Today was another cloudy and foggy day across the area, with high temperatures again slightly cooler than expected and similar to those of yesterday, peaking in the low to mid 40s inland and mid 40s to about 50 degrees for the rest of the area.

Temperatures will peak on Monday morning before a cold front moves through, cooling temperatures down to at least slightly warmer than average, with a light rain/snow event on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain generally near-slightly warmer than average until next weekend, with a colder pattern likely afterwards.

 


Tonight – Wednesday: Cooler; Some Rain, Snow

Temperatures tonight will remain steady from the daytime highs across much of the area, rising late overnight into Monday morning, when the warmest temperatures of this warmer time frame are expected, peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area, with nearly 60 degrees towards central NJ. Temperatures will then cool down for the rest of the day with mainly cloudy skies but with very little, if any rain.

The forecast gets a little more complicated going into Tuesday and Wednesday with two weak waves of low pressure expected to affect the region. The focus of these waves will be in the Mid Atlantic, where several days of light-moderate rain will gradually add up to several inches, while the area will be in the northern end of these waves, where a narrow zone of frozen precipitation is expected. On late Monday night into Tuesday morning, light rain is expected for most of the area, mixing with sleet and/or snow north and west of NYC, with any accumulations remaining minimal. The second and potentially stronger wave is likely for Wednesday, although uncertainty with the track is presenting difficulty in accurately forecasting precipitation types. Given the narrow zone for frozen precipitation, only a minor shift in the track will change the scenario from dry, to light snow, to rain for NYC and snow in New England. Given the uncertainty, there is no high confidence currently for the Wednesday morning outlook, although assuming the north trend on the model guidance is correct, the majority of the area would observe precipitation, with rain further south/east and a mix or light snow further north/west. Exact accumulations for the area are uncertain, but locations under the narrow snow zone have the potential for up to at least 1-2 inches of snow. More information on this will be posted with Monday’s update.

Thursday – Beyond: Chilly, Warmer, Then Much Colder

Beyond the Wednesday event, a more fluctuating pattern will develop for the region between cold and mild air masses. Temperatures will warm up on Thursday back into the low to mid 40s ahead of a dry cold front, with a cold air mass moving into the Northeast. The area will be in the southern end of the colder air mass, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s on Friday. A low pressure is likely to move through the Southeast on Friday, producing rain and possibly snow in the southern Mid Atlantic; at this time, however, this is expected to remain well to the south of the area. By Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will end up above average again, warming back up into the 40s for most of, if not all of the area. Another cold front is then likely followed by another cool down. More on this will be discussed with the next pattern outlook later this week, but while it will take time for the colder pattern to develop, the area has not seen the peak of winter yet.

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