Dec 26, 2012 Storm Updates

Updates will be posted on the rain, snow, ice and wind event currently affecting the region. A few detailed updates will be posted in the bottom of this post, with most updates from Twitter.

 


Blog Updates:

12:00 AM: While most of the event has ended for the area, a last strong batch of heavy rain is moving through the area, and is expected to produce strong to damaging wind gusts, up to and locally over 60 mph. Today’s storm has had many impacts on the area; ranging from power outages further south due to the strong winds, heavy rain near NYC, and significant snowfall in the northwestern parts of the area, which are still reporting snow but are expected to mix with and gradually change over to rain, sleet and freezing rain.

**Forecast Update**: Behind this storm, yet another snow event is expected for the region, this time including more of the area without a changeover to heavy rain. A relatively weak storm will quickly move towards the region, with snow expected throughout the day on Saturday as it moves towards the coast and intensifies offshore. At this time, most models are relatively weak with the storm, but there are signs of a trend of a slightly stronger and wetter storm. The current expectation based on the latest model trends is for a light-moderate snowstorm to affect the area with snow totals generally between 2 and 5 inches, although it is not out of the question that a snowier scenario with a stronger and more amplified storm ends up being shown with future model runs; if so, forecast totals may need to be adjusted upwards for parts of the area with later updates, and a more significant snowstorm may be possible. More information will be posted on this with Thursday night’s discussion.

 

9:00 PM: Over the last few hours, the snow in the immediate NYC area gradually mixed with and changed over to sleet and rain; currently, rain is the dominant precipitation type in NYC and further east and south, with southern Connecticut and NE NJ near the borderline, switching between rain and sleet. Heavy rain, mixing with sleet occasionally north of NYC, will continue until at least 12 AM, with only light occasional showers expected afterwards. Strong wind gusts will continue tonight, with lighter winds expected tomorrow.

Heavy snow continues to affect NW NJ and interior SE NY, with heavy snow and strong winds resulting in near blizzard conditions at times. Accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected prior to the end of the bulk of the storm, with freezing rain expected to begin mixing later tonight. Plain rain is also expected to start mixing but not until the bulk of the storm ends, when precipitation is lighter and more spotty.

 

5:40 PM: Since the last update earlier this afternoon, snow has developed from NYC and further north/west, with rain and some snow/sleet in Long Island. Moderate to locally heavy snow was observed in N NJ and SE NY, with accumulations generally in the 1-3 inch range so far. Especially towards NE NJ and NYC, precipitation has been going back and forth from snow to rain/sleet, but is expected to transition towards more sleet and rain as the rain/snow line, currently close to the Interstate 80 corridor, continues to slowly shift north.

Additional accumulations are expected in SE NY, southern CT, north central and NW NJ through the evening hours while NYC and NE NJ gradually change over to plain rain, with sleet, freezing rain and rain gradually reaching the northwestern areas as well this evening. For the immediate NYC area into Long Island and southern CT, once the changeover takes place, heavy rain will continue through at least 12-4 AM with up to an inch expected, along with wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, perhaps locally higher in Long Island.

Following the weakening of the primary low pressure over Kentucky, the secondary low pressure is developing as expected near SE Virginia, and will move NNE towards New Jersey and just south of NYC by tonight, although most of the precipitation will fall ahead of the low pressure.

 

2:40 PM: This morning, the storm produced light accumulating snow for Baltimore, with the rain/snow line currently set up near the Interstate 95 corridor with flurries observed from NYC and further west and SW. Light non-accumulating snow is expected in NYC, changing over to rain by at least 5 PM. West of NYC, the snow is expected to pick up in intensity through at least 5-6 PM, when the rain/snow line will gradually move from northeastern NJ further north/west, gradually making its way towards NW NJ and interior SE NY where more ice is expected towards the overnight hours. The current accumulation forecast is for 1 inch in NE NJ, 1-2 inches in SE NY, 2-4 inches towards western Bergen county and interior Rockland county, and 4-8 inches in NW NJ and interior SE NY, with locally higher amounts possible.

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