Dec 11, 2012: More Active Pattern To Return

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night’s cold front, cooler temperatures returned with highs in the mid 40s inland and the upper 40s to low 50s for the rest of the area, which was warmer than expected. Similar conditions will continue through Saturday until a more active pattern develops, with rain expected on Sunday and Monday with another potential storm around the 19-20th.





Tonight – Saturday: Dry, Slightly Warmer Than Average

Temperatures are already quite cold for interior areas, in the upper 20s to low 30s as of 12 AM, and will continue to drop, with lows reaching the low to mid 20s inland and the mid 20s to low 30s for the rest of the area except for NYC and the immediate coast, in the low to mid 30s. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area. Generally similar high temperatures will continue through Saturday, likely the warmest on Friday when parts of the immediate NYC area may reach 50 degrees. Overnight lows will be on a slow warming trend through the rest of the week.

Sunday – Monday: Weak Storm Produces Rain, Interior Mix

As mentioned in yesterday’s pattern outlook, the pattern will begin to become more active and less mild starting this weekend, with the next storm expected for the 16-17th. This storm is not expected to track significantly inland especially with a strong high pressure to the north along with a block present over Greenland, with a transfer to a secondary low pressure expected. The model guidance does not have a good handle on this time frame yet, especially the GFS with significant run to run differences with the 500mb set up, and the models are expected to continue struggling with this time frame for the next few days until more consistency and a better consensus emerges on the set up. At this time, I am expecting mostly rain for the area with the best chance for an accumulating snowstorm in the central and northern Northeast. With initial cold air damming expected, however, the interior parts of the area especially towards SE NY and  Connecticut away from the coast may begin with frozen precipitation; freezing rain could be an issue especially for the higher elevations. As previously mentioned, however, the models are still having a tough time handling this time period, and additional changes are possible, if not likely, in the forecast. More information on this will be posted over the next few days.

Mid – Late Next Week: Another Storm Potential

The second and perhaps more interesting storm potential exists towards mid-late next week, around the 19-20th. Another shortwave is expected to reach the southwestern and southern US early in the week, and with the generally progressive flow as well as the blocking shifting over towards central Canada, is unlikely to track too far west of the region, and also has the potential to produce rain and snow in the region. Today’s model runs continue to have issues with handling this time frame, with many different solutions shown, although the potential does exist for a storm, potentially a strong one, to affect parts of the region around this time period. Considering the time range and the model guidance struggling with handling the set up for this time period, however, it is too early to know with enough confidence specifically where the storm will track, who gets what precipitation type and how much. Stay tuned for more information on this potential once details become clearer.

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