Nov 7, 2012 Storm Updates

Updates will be posted on the nor’easter and unusual early season snowstorm currently affecting the area starting later this afternoon. A few brief Twitter updates will be posted before then, with blog updates on the storm starting in the late afternoon as well.

10:20 AM: concern growing for heavy snow this afternoon to begin a bit earlier than expected with accumulations a bit higher in the NYC area. Update will be posted at 11:40.


Blog Updates:

11:20 PM: The snow band impressively continues to hold in place over the NYC area, although it has slightly weakened over the last few hours and has become a bit more broken up. Regardless, this storm has significantly overperformed in terms of snow totals, with widespread totals of 5-10 inches, locally up to 12 inches, likely across parts of New Jersey, NYC, western Long Island, and western/central CT, with the highest totals over SW CT.

This is the last storm update for tonight. The snow will gradually weaken later in the overnight hours, with dry conditions expected by the morning. The next forecast update will be posted on Thursday evening.


7:50 PM: The heavy snow band continued to train over the immediate NYC area over the last few hours, with accumulations as high as 6-8 inches reported in SW Connecticut. Precipitation from the nor’easter has dried up across parts of the Northeast, although the band of heavy snow remains strong over the immediate NYC area, with lighter snow observed in NW NJ, Orange county in interior SE NY, and eastern Connecticut and Long Island. Additional power outages are being reported with the snowstorm on top of locations that remain without power due to hurricane Sandy a little more than a week ago, while winds were weaker than expected, generally reaching 40-50 mph in Long Island. The snow is expected to begin weakening after 8-9 AM, gradually ending through the overnight hours.

5:30 PM: A highlight of the winter came quite unexpectedly before the season even started, and in the strangest of all situations possible: A significant early season snowstorm in the NYC area a little more than a week after a late season hurricane in New Jersey. The current set up is somewhat east of yesterday’s forecast, the northwestern parts of the area are underperforming, with Sussex and Orange county likely to end up with 1 to 3 inches total, with the lowest totals further northwest.

Instead, the heaviest snow is focusing in the area over NE NJ, NYC, western Long Island into Nassau county, and southwestern/central Connecticut, where the storm is significantly overperforming. Totals of at least 4 to 8 inches are expected across most of this area. The latest radar shows banding over NYC, Nassau county and SW CT, with the heaviest storm totals possible towards CT where amounts as high as 10 inches may be possible in some areas.

Current conditions will generally continue through the evening, with weakening snow likely towards the late evening and early overnight hours, with lighter snow mixing with light rain later into the overnight hours with temperatures staying close to the freezing mark. Mostly cloudy skies with isolated rain/snow showers are expected  for Thursday with slightly warmer temperatures, peaking in the low to mid 40s across most of the area.


1:30 PM: As of the latest observations, the heavy precipitation band is now near western Long Island and SW CT, approaching NYC and the north/western suburbs. Once the band crosses NYC, heavier snow will develop in the immediate NYC area for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours while moderate to heavy snow continues in western Connecticut. The snow will continue through the evening hours before starting to weaken.

The updated snow map has been posted below. The heaviest snow totals will be across north central and NE NJ into SE NY and western Connecticut, where totals above 4 inches are expected. Isolated locations may see as much as 7 to 9 inches of snow under the heaviest bands.

11:45 AM: As expected, snow is starting to affect the immediate NYC area with some areas also reporting rain. The main  change in the expectation, however, is that the period of heavy snow originally expected for late this afternoon into the evening looks to end up a bit east of the original expectation while also moving in earlier than expected, affecting the immediate NYC area into central NJ and SW CT with moderate to heavy wet snow as early as 1-2 PM, even in NYC. This could be a big issue for locations where snow accumulates on the roads, with hazardous driving conditions for the afternoon and evening commutes.

At this time my forecast accumulations are similar to my map from last night but slightly adjusted upwards, with up to 1-2″ likely in parts of NYC, and widespread 3-4+ inch totals across northern NJ, SE NY and SW CT, starting from the north/west suburbs of NYC. Totals may be as high as 6-8 inches in some areas.

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