Nov 5, 2012 Noon Update

5:00 PM: Confidence remains low on the forecast as some of the models that have been the most consistent with a significant nor’easter are backing down and shifting east, towards less impact in the region. The latest GFS run significantly changed from its previous runs and keeps the storm almost entirely east of NYC with less winds as well. Forecasts usually aren’t this uncertain within the 2 day range ahead of an approaching storm – for now I kept the 5-day forecast similar, but slightly lowered probability of precipitation west of NYC. Tonight’s forecast will be posted at 1:30 AM, following the rest of tonight’s model runs, to have a better idea of what the storm might do. Stay tuned.

1:20 PM: Since yesterday’s update, there have been significant changes with the model guidance regarding the nor’easter on Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the models are much more east, such as the NAM and UKMET, although they are likely outliers and are expected to trend back west. The CMC model has the storm intensifying much further south, with some snow in Virginia and Maryland along with moderate rain and strong wind gusts in the NYC area; the GFS and the 12z ECM, however, show a moderate wet snowstorm for the eastern Mid Atlantic up through eastern Pennsylvania and most of New Jersey, even including NYC.

Confidence in the forecast is currently lower than it was yesterday as the models continue to change around, with the main changes involving the precipitation type and the intensity, although wind gusts are still expected to be strong for the area, especially for the coast with wind gusts near or above 50-65 mph expected for Wednesday night into Thursday, which along with some coastal flooding will result in even more issues for the coastal areas struggling to recover from Sandy. Stay tuned for a detailed forecast discussion this evening reviewing today’s trends along with a new, updated forecast.



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