Nov 22, 2012: Storm Possible Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

After what has been a long stretch of dry conditions through the middle of the month, with most of the area at least 25-50% of the average monthly rainfall, a change in the pattern is expected, although at least for the next 2 weeks is not expected to result in any stormy pattern. The next upcoming precipitation event is possible for the middle of next week, with a storm expected to reach the region but with the track still uncertain.




Weekend Outlook: Cold, Windy

Friday will be the last of the mild, sunny and dry days, with temperatures and weather conditions similar to today but with a south wind instead of a NE wind. A strong cold front will move through on Friday night with the risk of a few isolated showers near or north of NYC, followed by partly cloudy skies and much colder temperatures for Saturday, accompanied by stronger NW winds. Highs are expected to reach the low 40s inland and the mid 40s for the rest of the area. Much colder overnight lows are expected, dropping into the low 20s inland with mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area except for NYC and the immediate coast, in the low 30s. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday, in the low to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area.

Next Week: Storm Potential

Temperatures will slightly warm up for Monday, reaching the mid to upper 40s for most of the area with dry conditions persisting. By Tuesday, however, a low pressure will develop in the central US and move towards the region. There remains uncertainty with the exact track of this low, as the GFS and CMC are taking the low pressure through the Ohio Valley with a secondary low near the Northeast, keeping the area as rain with mild temperatures, while the UKMET appears to be south enough for a cold rain and/or a snowstorm and the ECM is entirely south of the area. Having the ECM show the storm south of the area is interesting considering it is a typically reliable model, although the early month showed why models cannot be favored just because of reliability when the ECM performed strongly with Sandy but poorly for the early November snowstorm, as well as the overall lack of consistency between the recent ECM runs. With the negative NAO in place, any storm that does initially track west of the region will be prevented from continuing straight through the Great Lakes and Canada, and at this point there is a higher probability of the low tracking through the Mid Atlantic or south/central Northeast region. Precipitation is likely to fall in the region, but the intensity as well as the location of the snow potential remain uncertain due to the large spread in the track forecast. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

Beyond the storm:

Despite different tracks for the mid week storm, there is a higher confidence of a strong trough moving into the region for late next week with the potential for the coldest temperatures of the season so far to end November. The exact intensity of the cold air mass is uncertain, but this will only act to cement November’s status as the first month since early 2011 to feature widespread below average temperatures across the region.

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