Nov 19, 2012: Mostly Sunny Thanksgiving, Colder Weekend

Forecast Highlights:

Temperatures will continue to gradually warm up slightly throughout this week, with partly sunny skies expected for Thanksgiving along with highs in the low to mid 50s. The zonal and dry pattern in place will begin to change starting this weekend with a transient cold air mass expected, with the next widespread storm potential expected around November 27-29.





Monday – Friday: Dry, Mostly Sunny, Mild

As with Saturday’s outlook, similar conditions will continue through this Friday with no changes in the pattern. A NE flow will gradually turn more towards the north by Wednesday, with a south wind expected on Friday. High temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 50s across the area, slightly warming throughout the week with more widespread mid 50s expected in the immediate NYC area by Thursday and Friday. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected throughout the week, including Thursday, with highs on Thanksgiving day reaching the low to mid 50s across the area.

Friday – Beyond: Pattern To Become Colder, Somewhat Stormier

The pattern that has been in place since last week will begin to change this weekend as the zonal flow breaks, and the strong cold air that has been trapped in Canada for the last week will begin to drop south into the US. The first stronger cold air mass is expected for this upcoming weekend, which will be preceded by a cold front on Friday night producing scattered showers, possibly mixing with snow showers for interior northwestern areas (Sussex, Orange counties). Partly sunny skies are expected for the weekend with stronger winds from the NW; highs will reach the low to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s across the rest of the area. Overnight lows will be colder as well, dropping down into the low to mid 20s inland and the mid 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area outside of NYC and the immediate coast, which will be a few degrees warmer.

As will be discussed in more detail with tomorrow’s pattern outlook, the pattern going into early December will be different than this month’s pattern. The first widespread storm for the region since the early November snowstorm is expected on the 27-29th, next Tuesday through Thursday. With the pattern in place, a trough is expected to be centered around the western/central US with ridging likely near or east of Greenland; although it is still too far out to narrow down exactly where the low will track, at this time a track well to the northwest of the region is less likely, with the potential track perhaps over the Northeast or the Mid Atlantic, and the potential is there for rain or potentially snow in this time frame. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s storm potential.

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