Nov 10, 2012: Warmer, Less Extreme Pattern Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

Following the extreme 10-day period ranging from hurricane Sandy to extreme cold and a significant early season snowstorm, the NYC area is finally getting a much needed break from the active pattern. A pattern change is currently unfolding, with much warmer temperatures returning this weekend into early next week as a less active pattern continues through at least the middle of November.

 


Nor’easter Brief Summary:

For the 2nd year in a row, the NYC area was affected by an unusually early significant snowstorm, with widespread amounts of 4 to 10 inches, locally as high as 13-14 inches, observed. This storm was very difficult to forecast with the model guidance failing to reach a consensus on the storm scenario until the storm was already underway. While parts of the forecast from the night before did verify, such as the expectation for a widespread snowstorm across New Jersey, SE NY and CT, the heavy snow began earlier than expected, with the heavy snow axis east of the expectation as totals were much higher than expected. Parts of Long Island which were expected to receive rain ended up with as much as 4-8 inches of snow, parts of Connecticut and New Jersey received as much as 10-14 inches of snow, and even Central Park received 4.7 inches of snow; this makes this month the snowiest November since 1989 which also had 4.7 inches, tying it with that year as the 6th snowiest November on record; the top 5 snowiest Novembers in recorded history were all from 1938 and earlier.

Latest Forecast: Drier, Not As Cold

Fortunately, there is not much to say about the upcoming pattern which remains relatively calm, bringing a much needed break to the region after Sandy, unseasonable cold and an early snowstorm. A strong ridge is currently building over the eastern half of the US, with a much warmer air mass spreading into the region. This will result in a significant warm up as temperatures reach the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and the low to mid 60s, locally upper 60s near NYC, on Monday. A cold front will move through the region on Monday night with scattered showers as a colder air mass returns behind it, with highs returning into the upper 40s to low 50s for most of the area on Tuesday, followed by more widespread lows in the upper 20s to low 30s away from NYC. These colder temperatures will continue through at least Thursday, with a gradual warm up late in the week into next weekend as highs return into the mid to potentially upper 50s range. The main highlight towards the medium range is the potential for a storm around next weekend or early next week, which remains uncertain at this time.

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