Oct 7, 2012: Cool Pattern Continues This Week

[notice]This update has been posted in an experimental format. Should this be the new discussion format, some changes will be made, including the forecast graphic posted with the overview. For more information, click here.[/notice]

Forecast Highlights:

– Chilly temps tonight, slow warm up through Wednesday

– Some showers expected Monday night and Wednesday evening

– Gradual cool down for late week, frost possible Saturday

– Next storm to affect area on Sunday, next Monday



Tonight – Wednesday: Chilly, Then Warming Up

The latest radar posted to the left shows light rain currently over eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which is moving northeast. These showers will continue to quickly move northeast through the rest of the area, ending by 12-2 AM. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 30s inland, upper 30s to low 40s for most places north/west of NYC including southern CT, with low to mid 40s in Long Island and mid to upper 40s in NYC. Areas of frost may be possible for interior areas.

Last night’s update mentioned that the NAM was showing a low pressure spreading rain north through the region but was an outlier, with the rest of the model guidance showing no rain. While yesterday’s NAM solution was a bit exaggerated, there will be a coastal low pressure brushing coastal areas with light rain and mostly cloudy skies, with showers likely over Long Island and possible for other areas between Monday night into the first part of Tuesday. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s across the area on Tuesday, perhaps a bit cooler in eastern parts of Long Island and SE CT.

As the low pressure moves northeast towards New England, a strong shortwave will enter the region on Wednesday with a strong cold front moving through in the evening. Additional scattered showers are expected, especially north of NYC, during the evening hours, with otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 60s for most places. Windy conditions are expected behind the cold front, especially over Long Island, with gusts up to 30-40 mph expected.

Thursday – Beyond: Colder Start Before Sunday-Monday Storm

Temperatures will cool down with two cold fronts late this week; one on Wednesday night, and the other on Friday. Behind Wednesday night’s cold front, lows will drop into the upper 30s inland and the 40s for the rest of the area (more specific temperature forecasts can be found in the 5-Day Forecast page), with highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another shortwave will move through the region on Friday, although this one is expected to be drier, with most, if not all light rain showers staying north of the area. Temperatures are expected to again reach the upper 50s to low 60s, perhaps a bit cooler for northern areas. With a much colder air mass moving in behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the low 30s inland and the mid 30s to low 40s for the rest of the area except for NYC, in the low to mid 40s, potentially making this the first widespread frost event of this fall.

This cool down will only be brief, however; as last night’s long range pattern discussion mentioned, temperatures will warm up as a cutoff low currently stuck west of California makes its way through the US, producing rain and possible severe weather in the central US on Saturday. This low pressure will track north of the area, with a SW flow bringing a surge of warmth into the Mid Atlantic and parts of the Northeast, as temperatures rise well into the 60s. Most of the rain at this time is likely to stay north of the area, although showers are still expected to affect the area on Sunday into Monday, perhaps Tuesday, with cooler temperatures likely following behind the storm. Stay tuned for more information on the early week storm.

Leave a Reply