Sept 27, 2012: Rainy, Then Warmer

Forecast Highlights:

– Rain, thunderstorms expected tomorrow; highs in upper 60s-low 70s
– Mostly cloudy, few showers for weekend, Monday
– Warm up towards middle of next week

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Tonight – Monday: Chilly, Rainy

The latest radar, posted to the left, shows the rain that will affect the region tonight into tomorrow located over Pennsylvania. The storm appears to be ahead of schedule, and is expected to clear most of the area by noon except for eastern areas, which will see some showers persisting beyond noon. The heaviest rain is expected to stay north of the area, with showers and thunderstorms expected to affect the area with the peak during the morning hours. Rain totals are expected to end up between 1/2 and 1 inch, locally up to 2 inches, north and west of NYC, with lower totals for Long Island. Temperatures will warm up into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area.

As the wave of low pressure moves out, mostly cloudy skies will continue for the weekend with a risk of scattered showers, especially east and NE of NYC, as an upper level low remains in place over the region. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 60s to 70 degrees on Saturday and the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday. Similar temperatures are expected again for Monday.

Tuesday – Beyond: Warming Up

The upper level low will gradually exit the region, with another wave of low pressure expected to stay south of the area on Tuesday. More sustained ridging will then build into the region for the first time since mid September, with temperatures quickly warming up across the region well into the 70s, likely peaking in the mid to upper 70s in the area during the peak of the warm spell. Uncertainty increases for the longer range as models differ with their handling of a dropping cold air mass in Canada; although there is expected to be ridging in the western Canada/NE Pacific region, it appears that the trough will extend towards the southwest US, which at least through the medium range should prevent an amplified trough from dropping into the region, rather favoring more of a gradual cool down with temperatures likely returning towards the 60s-low 70s range. With the pattern uncertainty there are model differences regarding the timing of the next cold front, although it appears that it may come through sometime late next week or next weekend with the possibility of rain. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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