Sept 25, 2012: Rain Expected This Weekend

Forecast Highlights

– Some showers on Wednesday, brief warm up
– Chilly pattern continues through medium range
– Rain expected for this weekend


Tonight – Thursday: Some rain, then cloudy

An area of showers is currently approaching the region, and will provide some rain across the area tonight. Mainly cloudy skies are expected to continue for Wednesday and Wednesday night with scattered showers but with generally light totals up to 1/4 inch for most places. Highs are expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 70s east of NYC. Temperatures may reach 80 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with the risk of isolated showers and highs cooling down into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low 70s across the rest of the area.

Friday – Beyond: Some Rain, Chilly Temperatures Expected

The briefly drier conditions will only be short lasting as another rain event sets up for Friday into the weekend. A closed 500mb low will drift towards the region as a surface low pressure develops off the coast. An initial round of rain is expected on Friday, with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers and highs only in the 60s across the area; at this time, I am keeping highs in the mid 60s, although this may need to be adjusted lower should the rainier scenario verify. Uncertainty then increases for the weekend as there is still uncertainty regarding the exact development of the low pressure; the latest GFS run goes back to showing the old scenario of a stronger low pressure developing and tracking north through the region, producing widespread rain, while the ECM, CMC and NAM show little additional rain. Although at least some rain is expected during the weekend regardless of which scenario verifies, the scenario first mentioned is still uncertain, and at this time my forecast maintains a chance of some rain for the weekend, although the outlook is still subject to change. Temperatures will remain chilly, generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, although should the rainier outcome verify temperatures would be colder. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend outlook.

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