Sept 24, 2012: Some Rain, Then Chilly Again

Forecast Highlights:

– Some showers on Wednesday; cooler ending to week
– Chilly rain possible around weekend

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The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated tonight for the entire area.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Slightly warmer; some rain expected

Following the cool air mass that resulted in widespread highs in the mid to upper 60s across the area today, cooler lows are expected tonight with less cloud cover, dropping into the upper 30s inland, low to mid 40s in interior parts of NE NJ, SE NY and southern CT and typically cooler parts of eastern Long Island, mid to upper 40s in the closer suburbs of NYC, and low to mid 50s in NYC. Areas of frost may be possible for interior areas; should this verify, it would be the first frost of the fall for the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across the area.

An approaching cold front will bring increased cloud cover overnight with some showers expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 70s across most of the area with mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows will be in the 50s for most of the area with 60s in NYC and its surrounding suburbs as cloud cover and scattered showers persist.

Thursday – Next Weekend: Chilly; Dry Start, Potentially Wet Ending

Behind the cold front, another trough will enter the region, although in this case as a more progressive pattern returns with less western Canada and western Atlantic ridging, the trough will be flatter and less amplified than the previous troughs, failing to drop much into the region while the cold front stalls near the central Mid Atlantic, keeping at least partly sunny skies in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s across most of the area with some low 70s on Thursday, slightly warming up on Friday, with overnight lows likely to drop into the low to mid 40s inland and the mid 40s to 50 degrees across the rest of the area with low to mid 50s in NYC.

Uncertainty increases for the weekends as a closed 500mb low moves towards the region but with each model showing a different outcome. Some of today’s model runs initially showed a coastal low pressure developing offshore and moving north into the region, providing widespread rain, although have since backed down from that scenario. The general outlook for this time period has a somewhat higher confidence level, with at least some showers expected around Saturday and/or Sunday, with temperatures staying chilly, generally in the 60s to low 70s. The expected set up is more uncertain, however, and at this time there are too many differences to make a high confidence call. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend set up.

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