Sept 22, 2012: October-Like Chill Continues

Forecast Highlights:

– Chilly temps to return again; highs in 60s, lows in 40s
– Interior areas to possibly drop below 40 degrees for lows
– Brief warm up towards Wednesday with some rain
– Another cool down for the late week


Sunday – Tuesday: Chilly Temperatures Return

Another strong cool air mass will move into the region behind the cold front currently moving through the region. Highs on Sunday will only reach the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with mid 60s for interior areas. Overnight lows are a bit more tricky with a shortwave moving through on Sunday night into the first half of Monday with increased cloud cover especially from NYC and further north/west. Due to the increased cloud cover, I went slightly warmer than modeled for Sunday night lows, dropping into the low 40s inland, mid 40s to low 50s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, and the low to mid 50s in NYC. Eastern areas are expected to cool down more prior to the arrival of the shortwave, with temps likely dropping into the low 40s in the coolest areas in eastern Long Island and parts of southern CT, perhaps dropping slightly below 40 degrees in the cooler scenario. Monday night is expected to be the coldest night with mainly clear skies, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and the low to mid 40s for most other places, with the exceptions including upper 40s in the closer suburbs of NYC and low to possibly mid 50s in NYC. The coolest daytime highs will be on Monday, peaking in the low to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area, with slightly warmer temperatures expected for Tuesday in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday – Beyond: Briefly Warmer, Then Chilly

The next cold front will move through the region late on Wednesday, with additional showers and possibly thunderstorms expected. A brief warm up is expected with highs reaching the low to mid 70s across the area. Behind the cold front, another trough will move into the region for Thursday into the weekend, with highs again returning into the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s outside of the immediate NYC area. By this time period, however, the pattern will be less amplified than it is now and slightly more progressive following the departure of the strong ridging east of Atlantic Canada. There is more uncertainty going into next weekend and beyond although the latest model guidance suggests the possibility for another rain event next weekend.

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