Aug 8, 2012: Stormy Friday And Saturday

Forecast Highlights:

– Stormy weather returns for Fri-Sat with storms, some strong/heavy
– Drier and slightly cooler Sunday and Monday
– More storms possible towards middle of next week

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Wednesday, August 8 Observations:

Dry conditions continued across the area, although warmer temperatures were observed compared to the previous day, when there was more cloud cover than expected with cooler than expected temperatures. Highs reached the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west, and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. The warmest temperature observed was 93 degrees in Teterboro, although this is noticeably higher than the surrounding stations; the 2nd highest temperature was 88 degrees in Caldwell and Newark, NJ.

Thursday – Saturday: Thunderstorms Return

Partly sunny skies are expected across the area on Thursday with highs reaching the upper 80s from NYC and north/west, reaching the low 90s in some spots, with most of Long Island and southern CT in the mid 80s, slightly cooler towards the immediate coast. Scattered storms are possible especially west of NYC towards the late afternoon and evening hours, although widespread storms are not expected. The risk of isolated storms is expected to continue into Thursday night.

A stronger low pressure will develop near Michigan on Friday and drift slowly to the NE on Saturday before lifting out of the region, producing widespread thunderstorms, some of them severe in the Mid Atlantic region. Temperatures will fail to warm up much for Friday and Saturday due to cloud cover, peaking in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday, warmer in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday. Scattered storms are expected on Friday, some of them strong/locally severe with heavy rain and strong winds the main risks, although the better chance for widespread storms is during Friday night into the first half of Saturday, when storms have the potential to produce heavy rain with localized flash flooding, along with a risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Drier conditions will return by Saturday night. Stay tuned for more information on the late week storm.

Sunday – Next Week: Dry Start; Possibly Wet Ending

Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will briefly enter the region, with highs on Sunday reaching the lower to mid 80s with partly sunny skies. Dry conditions are expected to last through at least Tuesday or Wednesday, with a gradual rise in temperatures into the mid to upper 80s for most of the area by the middle of next week. The models become significantly different by late next week, ranging from a heat surge and a stronger cold front on the ECM, to an approaching low pressure on the CMC and a cutoff low pressure north of the region on the GFS. Although these differences result in much lower confidence in the exact scenario for late next week, the potential exists for rain at some point during mid-late next week. More information will be posted as details become clearer regarding this time frame.

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