Aug 7, 2012: Storms, Heavy Rain Return Friday

Forecast Highlights:

– Seasonable temperatures continue tomorrow
– Thunderstorms expected Fri-Sat, could be strong/severe with heavy rain
– Cooler temperatures briefly return for Sun-Mon

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Tuesday, August 7 Observations:

Dry conditions persisted across the region for Tuesday, including the area, although temperatures ended up a few degrees cooler than expected with more cloud cover than expected. High temperatures reached the lower to mid 80s from NYC and north/west, and the lower 80s across most of Long Island/S CT with a few spots failing to reach 80 degrees. The peak high was 86 degrees, observed in Teterboro.

Wednesday – Saturday: Dry Start, Then Wetter

Dry conditions with mostly sunny skies are expected to continue across the area on Wednesday with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT with a SSW wind. More clouds are expected for Thursday with scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and evening hours, some of them strong to low-end severe. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 80s further east, perhaps reaching the low 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area.

By Friday and Saturday, a low pressure will drop into the Ohio Valley and slowly move through the north/western parts of the Northeast, producing widespread thunderstorms, some of them severe. Destabilization will be limited with cloud cover, although there should still be severe weather across parts of the region, especially in the Mid Atlantic, with high moisture and precipitable water values supporting a heavy rain risk with localized flash flooding. As the cold front slowly moves east, more widespread storms will affect the area on Friday night and Saturday, some of them strong/severe with heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Temperatures for both days will stay cooler than average, likely peaking in the lower to mid 80s.

Sunday – Beyond: Cooler, Then Warming Up

Behind the trough, a cooler air mass will move into the region, with widespread low temperatures in the 50s and 60s expected. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area on Sunday, reaching the mid 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area, which is cooler than average. With the trough moving out and 850mb temperatures warming up, temperatures will gradually warm up back into the lower to mid 80s, slightly higher, towards the middle of next week. No widespread rain event is in the forecast through the middle of next week.

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