Aug 6, 2012: More Storms Late This Week

NOTE: The 5-Day Forecast and Tropics pages have been updated with tonight’s update.

Forecast Highlights:

– Warm, generally dry first half of week
– More storms, some severe, expected for Thursday/Friday
– Drier, slightly cooler conditions likely for next weekend


Monday, August 6 Observations:

Following last night’s cold front, a slightly cooler air mass moved into the area with drier conditions and more sunshine. Temperatures ended up peaking in the lower to mid 80s in the north/western parts of the area, and in the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, Long Island and southern CT, with JFK reaching 90 degrees. Warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday, with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s, although a cutoff low pressure will enter the region on Friday and Saturday, resulting in widespread thunderstorms, some of them severe, along with cooler temperatures.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Mainly Dry, Warm

Similar conditions compared to those of today are expected to continue for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s for highs across most of the area, slightly cooler in eastern parts of Long Island/SE CT, along with mostly sunny skies. An isolated storm or two may be possible north/west of NYC on Wednesday, otherwise the area should stay dry.

Thursday – Saturday: ULL Moves In; Stormier, Slightly Cooler

Partly cloudy skies are expected for Thursday with scattered storms, especially in the afternoon and evening and mainly north/west of NYC, with highs similar to those of Wednesday. By late Thursday and Friday, however, an upper level low will drop into the Great Lakes region and slowly move through the western Northeast, resulting in widespread thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather, especially from NYC and further south/SW. Widespread cloud cover and south/SSE winds, especially a factor further east/NE, could limit destabilization, although modeled shear values are favorable for severe weather along with moderate instability, with plenty of moisture and high precipitable water values across the region resulting in another potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

Most of the storms are expected to take place on Friday and Friday night; there is still uncertainty with exactly when the storm leaves, however, and scattered storms were kept in the forecast through Saturday with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. Drier conditions are expected for Sunday into early next week as the ULL moves out, with temperatures remaining close to average.

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