– Heat/humidity continue for this weekend
– Cold front on Sunday night to produce storms, some strong
– More rain/storms likely by end of next week/next weekend
Today – Saturday Outlook: Isolated Storms, Warm/Humid
Heat and humidity was observed across parts of the area today, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s in most of the immediate NYC area. Along with humid conditions, heat index values reached the mid to upper 90s. Currently, there are isolated thunderstorms located to the south of the area; an isolated storm or two is possible tonight, although the area will generally remain dry with partly/mostly cloudy skies. Similar conditions compared to those of today are expected for Saturday, with a few isolated afternoon/evening storms possible.
Sunday – Monday: Scattered Storms, Some Strong/Severe
A cold front will move through the region on Sunday and Monday, removing the hot and humid air mass. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with scattered storms, although most of the daytime storm activity will stay to the west, where severe storms are likely to affect parts of western/central New York and Pennsylvania. The timing of the cold front is unfavorable for a widespread severe weather event extending further east into the area, as the cold front isn’t expected to move through until late in the overnight hours, although high precipitable water values are maintained throughout the overnight hours. While the severe weather risk will be diminished by the time the line of storms move into the area, likely after 12 AM, storms will be capable of producing heavy rain totals and localized flash flooding. Other than morning storms especially east of NYC, dry conditions are expected for Monday with more sunshine, less humidity, and temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west, and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT.
Next Week: Seasonable, Late Week Storms
Mostly to partly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with highs remaining near average, in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, ending up a bit cooler for Long Island/S CT. More storms are expected to return around Friday and/or parts of next weekend, although the models still vary with the specific details of the storm scenario. Although uncertainty increases beyond next weekend, the overall pattern is unlikely to change much, consisting of a trough lingering over the NE US with temperatures generally staying near/slightly above average with a few short lasting surges of heat/humidity along with occasional cooler than average time frames.