Aug 27, 2012 Noon Update

Isaac – Unlike the expectation from yesterday, Isaac has failed to significantly organize itself, and instead has maintained its intensity throughout the day. Isaac continues to face the same difficulties it has dealt with yesterday, such as dry air and the large storm size also working against rapid intensification. Additionally, Isaac is also in an area of lower tropical cyclone heat potential in the Gulf of Mexico. While some strengthening to at least a category 1 hurricane is expected, the rapid intensification that once appeared possible is no longer expected. My updated outlook for Isaac tonight will significantly revise the forecast intensity downward, as well as including a more detailed explanation on what is going wrong with Isaac compared to the original forecast.

NYC Area storms – A narrow band of strong storms containing heavy rain and localized flash flooding is drifting NNE through NYC and the immediate NYC area. This band is capable of producing rainfall amounts up to at least 1/2 to 1 inch, locally higher. More storms are expected tonight with the cold front.

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