Aug 19, 2012: Cooler Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

– Heat/humidity end; cooler temperatures continue this week
– Some showers/storms possible Monday and Weds
– Slight warm up next weekend


Sunday, August 19 Observations:

The forecast for 8/19 was for mostly sunny skies, although instead mostly cloudy skies were observed, which resulted in colder than expected temperatures. Chilly morning temperatures were observed with widespread lows in the 50s, even dropping into the upper 40s for interior areas. Highs reached the lower to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area, southern CT and Long Island. This was the first time high temperatures were below 80 degrees in the entire area since 7/19, almost a month earlier.

Monday – Wednesday: Still Chilly, Some Rain Possible

There was initially some confusion regarding tomorrow’s outlook, as the NAM and ECM models had a coastal low close to the area, producing widespread rain with highs only in the 60s, while the GFS and CMC kept the coastal low southeast of the area, with warmer temperatures reaching the 70s and peaking near 80 in a few areas. The NAM occasionally tends to exaggerate storm scenarios like this one, however, and the recent NAM and ECM runs backed away to a further offshore solution as well, with temperatures in the 70s across the area. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected further east, while places west of NYC will likely have occasional breaks in the cloud cover with isolated afternoon/evening storms. Brief updates may be posted tomorrow, if needed.

Drier conditions will return for Tuesday with partly sunny skies, highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and the risk of isolated showers. By Wednesday, the NAM and ECM show another coastal low while the GFS has isolated showers and the CMC keeps the low to the southeast. Considering how the original outlook for tomorrow went, at this time I’m expecting additional isolated showers with highs also in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Thursday – Beyond: Slight Warm Up, But No Heat

Temperatures are expected to warm up in the late week and into next weekend as the trough lifts out of the eastern and central US with rising heights, and for the first time since early August, the gap between the western US ridge and the western Atlantic ridge closes over the region. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s for most of the area, reaching the upper 70s in coastal areas and perhaps the upper 80s in the immediate NYC area on the warmer days. The orientation of the high pressure isn’t favorable for widespread heat, especially with S/SSW winds as opposed to WSW winds, although a warm air mass is still in place, which should keep temperatures similar to those of the late week through the weekend and into the early week. The next cold front at this time appears to be towards the middle of next week, although some changes are still possible given the time range.

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