July 8, 2012: Seasonable Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

– Average temperatures expected most of this week
– Gradual warm up by medium range with storms possible


Today’s Observations:

Following yesterday’s cold front, a cooler air mass moved into the region, pushing the shrinking core of the heat to the south. Although temperatures were cooler than they were yesterday, they still ended up warmer than average, peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area with mid 80s in eastern LI/SE CT and mid 90s near NE NJ. As the temperature rise yesterday was stopped in the northern parts of the area due to widespread cloud cover and showers, some areas north of NYC ended up even warmer than yesterday, such as Sussex which peaked at 88 degrees yesterday and 90 degrees today.

With a chilly air mass moving in, the 2 consecutive heat waves separated by one day of upper 80s ends for NYC and places further north/west, with Newark ending up with a single heat wave consisting of 11 consecutive 90+ degree days, 9 non-consecutive 95+ degree days (6 of them consecutive), and one 100+ degree day (102 degrees). High temperatures for most of the week will remain close to average, reaching the mid 80s for highs, with lows slightly cooler than average, in the mid to upper 50s inland and upper 50s to mid 60s in the immediate NYC area. As the trough weakens, however, above average temperatures will return by the medium range with more storm chances.

Monday – Thursday Outlook: Mostly dry, Seasonable

With a cooler air mass in place over the region, seasonable temperatures are expected for this week, with high temperatures in the mid 80s for most of the area, slightly cooler further east, and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and the upper 50s to mid 60s for the rest of the area. While daytime highs will be close to average, overnight lows will be slightly below average. Although most of the Monday-Thursday time period is expected to be dry, the potential is there for isolated shower/thunderstorm activity on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday – Beyond: Warming Up

The trough is expected to move out of the region by the late week, with no additional strong cool air mass in sight. Meanwhile, the Bermuda high pressure will shift west over the Atlantic, getting closer to the region, which will result in more widespread moisture for the region while a slightly warmer air mass moves in. This set up is not supportive of widespread strong heat, although it does favor temperatures generally ending up at least slightly above average for the medium range. With more moisture, the potential is also there for widespread scattered thunderstorm activity across the region going into the weekend and possibly beyond. Stay tuned for more information on the stormy weather potential for the medium range.

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