Below, updates will be posted on the severe weather expected for the region today.
6:00 PM: Storm Bust
The original area of storms in southern NY was expected to somewhat weaken with new activity forming; while new activity did form, it is on track to miss the area. As updates earlier this afternoon in the NYC Area Weather tweeter page mentioned, the area of storms that formed in western NY this afternoon was originally expected to move towards the area, but ended up taking more of a southern track, missing the area and instead heading towards southern NJ. While one or two isolated storms could reach western NJ, the storm outlook is likely to bust for today’s storm activity.
An overview of today’s forecast and what went wrong will be posted with tonight’s discussion, as well as more information on the cooler temperatures returning into the region for this upcoming week.
12:20 PM: Storms Earlier Than Expected
As of 12 PM, temperatures are still rising across the area with partly cloudy skies, currently in the 93-96 degree range for most of the immediate NYC area. Some unexpected developments, however, will prevent the area from reaching 100 degrees while increasing severe weather potential.
The latest radar, posted to the left, shows an area of strong thunderstorms over central NY moving ESE. These storms were not handled by the models correctly; most of the models were either too slow or too weak with the storms. The NAM model did show an area of storms but was too slow.
The current storms are headed towards western NJ by at least 2 PM. As this is a recent change, there are two main possibilities right now; the area of storms may slightly weaken and new development would take place around that area towards the mid afternoon hours, or the storms maintain their intensity as they move into the area with new storms forming and intensifying. Regardless of exactly what happens with the storms, there is an increasing chance of thunderstorms after 2-4 PM, some of which will be severe with strong winds the main threat. The best threat appears to focus to the west of NYC, extending into NJ and eastern Pennsylvania. The best chance for thunderstorms is towards the afternoon and evening hours, with storm activity likely diminishing afterwards. Stay tuned for more updates later this afternoon.