July 31, 2012: Storms For Tomorrow, Sunday

Forecast Highlights:

– Locally heavy storms, some strong, for Wednesday
– Temperatures to warm up with more humidity by late week
– Strong/possibly severe storms with cold front on Sun/Mon

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No update will be posted on Wednesday, August 1. The next update will be posted on Friday morning, August 3.

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Monday, July 30 Observations:

A weak high pressure moved into the region on the 30th, resulting in drier conditions following the heavy thunderstorms on the 29th. Temperatures were slightly warmer from NYC and further north/west, reaching the lower to mid 80s, but were slightly cooler in the eastern half, reaching the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT.


Tuesday, July 31 Observations:

The area remained dry in between two storm systems as a cold front slowly approached the area from the west, affecting Pennsylvania and New York with storms, while a small semi-tropical low pressure moved up the coast to the east, staying east of the area while affecting eastern Massachusetts with heavy rain. Cloud cover from the coastal low pressure to the east affected the eastern half of the area, where temperatures peaked in the lower to mid 70s in eastern areas and mid to upper 70s further west. NYC and north/west reached the lower 80s.

Tomorrow’s Outlook: Storms, Some Heavy

A weak cold front will move closer to the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies and thunderstorms. Scattered storms are expected to develop, mainly north and west of NYC, with tomorrow’s storms slow moving, resulting in locally heavy rain totals exceeding 1 inch. Some of the storms could be strong or low-end severe, although most of the storms will remain below severe levels. Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island/S CT.

Thursday – Monday: Warmer, More Humid

Partly sunny skies with dry conditions are expected for Thursday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 80s in most of Long Island/S CT. Another coastal low pressure could develop offshore during Thursday; while at this time, it is expected to stay east of the area, it is not out of the question that clouds and some showers may affect eastern parts of Long Island. A warmer air mass will move in for Friday and the weekend, resulting in warmer temperatures and increased humidity along with an isolated thunderstorm risk for each day. With 850mb temps approaching 20C, Friday and Saturday are expected to be the warmest days, with highs in the lower 90s for most places from NYC and further north/west, with mid 80s to 90 degrees in most of Long Island/S CT. Temperatures on either day may approach and/or reach 95 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Along with humid conditions, heat index values are likely to reach and slightly exceed 95 degrees in the immediate NYC area.

The next cold front will move into the region for Sunday and Monday, resulting in widespread thunderstorms, some of them severe. At this time, the cold front is modeled to move through early on Monday, with a line of storms moving through earlier in the day, although should the front end up a bit slower, there could be a higher risk of severe weather for Monday. Cooler temperatures are likely towards the middle of next week behind the cold front, although more warmth and/or storms are likely to build into the region by late next week and next weekend.

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