July 28, 2012: More Storms Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

– Heavy rain, localized flash flooding continue tonight
– Somewhat drier Sun-Tues, isolated showers possible
– More rain returns for Wednesday, next weekend


Friday, July 27 Observations:

Dry conditions were observed across the area on Friday with the rain mainly staying west. Temperatures peaked in the mid to upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Teterboro had the hottest temperatures with 92 degrees, with New London the coolest station with 85 degrees.

Saturday, July 28 Observations:

A low pressure moved into the region, resulting in widespread thunderstorms across the region. Morning storms were observed in parts of Long Island, with rain amounts locally above 3-4 inches. Afterwards, more storms developed in the afternoon, with a slow moving line of heavy rain and thunder affecting SE NY, Connecticut, and parts of northern NJ. This line resulted in additional heavy rain totals above 1-2 inches. Scattered evening storms developed over eastern PA, although these storms mainly stayed south of the area, with a severe cell moving east through central NJ. Temperatures were cooler due to the cloud cover and rain, peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island/S CT.

Tonight – Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Today has been active across the area in terms of storms, starting out with morning Long Island storms dumping amounts as high as 4 inches in isolated spots. Following the earlier afternoon storms, which produced locally heavy rainfall above 1-2 inches from NYC and further north/west, additional scattered strong storms are developing over western NJ and eastern PA, slowly drifting east. These storms will slowly enter the area, producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding. Some of these storms could be strong to low-end severe with gusty winds and small hail.

The rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, will continue through tonight and into Sunday morning. Rain totals are expected to end up generally between 1/2 to 1 inch with some areas exceeding 2 inches. The highest totals will stay for the main part north and west of NYC, with lighter totals in Long Island/S CT. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for the first half of Sunday, with drier conditions for the second half of the day but with clouds persisting. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 70s, locally reaching 80 degrees, with the cloud cover and morning rain.

Next Week: Seasonably Mild, More Rain Expected

Dry conditions are generally expected for Monday and Tuesday, although isolated storms are possible on both days. Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer with partly sunny skies, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island/S CT. During Tuesday night and Wednesday, more widespread showers and storms are expected to affect the region, with temperatures similar to, if not slightly colder than those of Tuesday.

Scattered storms are possible for Thursday, although the late week period has a somewhat drier look to it with slightly warmer temperatures. As the next low pressure approaches, more showers and thunderstorms are expected around next weekend, although the exact timing and scenario is still uncertain.

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