July 26, 2012 Storm Updates

Below, updates will be posted on the severe weather outbreak affecting the region today.


Current Storm Updates (Scroll down for brief Twitter updates)

8:00 PM: Severe Storms Entering NYC

The line has weakened over NE NJ, northwestern Long Island and southern CT, and for the main part is below severe levels, producing brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Further south, however, the line remains severe at this time, with severe storms containing strong wind gusts and heavy rain entering the southern half of NYC including Staten Island, Queens and Brooklyn. These storms will continue to move into the rest of Long Island.

This is the last storm update for the night. A summary on today’s storms across the region and the area will be posted on Friday along with a forecast update.

7:40 PM: Storms Weakening

As the storms entered the immediate NYC area, two severe lines held together; a line near Newark currently entering the southern half of NYC, producing strong to damaging wind gusts as well as heavy rain. Similar conditions are affecting southwestern Connecticut. The line weakened over NE NJ and SE NY, ending up below severe levels with brief heavy rain/gusty winds. The area of weaker storms is now moving into northwestern Long Island.

7:15 PM: Storms Approaching NYC

The severe storms  from the MCS have affected NW NJ and interior SE NY, and are now entering the immediate NYC area. Reports from the storms in NW NJ so far included heavy rain and strong wind gusts. The latest radar shows very minor weakening with the northern NJ/SE NY storms, although despite the minor weakening these storms are still severe and capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy rain. The storms will move through the immediate NYC area over the next 1/2 to 1 hour, later on moving into southern CT and the western half of Long Island.

5:55 PM: MCS About To Enter Area

Since the previous update, the severe storms in northern PA continued to develop into a MCS, and the MCS is about to enter the NW parts of the area in Sussex and Orange counties. These storms are quickly moving to the ESE, with the MCS on target to affect the entire immediate NYC area over the next 2-3 hours, getting into NYC around at least 7 PM and further east afterwards. The storms are still capable of intensifying with an unstable air mass ahead of them.

These storms are NOT to be taken lightly. This severe storm complex is capable of producing wind gusts above 60 mph, hail, heavy rain, and the potential for isolated tornadoes. Risks include downed trees/power lines, widespread power outages, and perhaps additional damages. Stay tuned for additional updates as the storms enter the area starting now through the next 2 hours.

3:45 PM: Storms Over Central PA

Over the last 2-3 hours, the squall line entered Pennsylvania, quickly intensifying with new storms forming to its south. Currently, there is a line full of strong to severe thunderstorms moving east/ESE, with the majority of central/northern Pennsylvania and southern New York state in its path. This line is easily expected to maintain itself until it gets into the NYC area towards around 7-9 PM this evening, producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes along its path. Similar impacts are expected across at least parts of the area as well. The main storm right now is located over north central PA and is generally moving east/ESE. This part of the squall line will continue to track east/ESE, and will be the main severe weather producer for the area this evening.

1:10 PM: Severe Storms This Evening

Early this morning, thunderstorms left over from a line of severe storms in the Great Lakes moved through the region, producing locally heavy rain especially over northern NJ just south of the NY/NJ border, where radar estimates show amounts locally approaching 1 inch. The morning storms, however, are just a preview of the main show for later tonight. The latest regional radar posted to the left shows most of the storms currently to the north of the area, with otherwise little rain around. The showers in southern NY are currently dissipating as cloud cover is clearing over Pennsylvania and New Jersey, including the area. With the clearing in the cloud cover, temperatures will quickly rise by the mid afternoon hours into the lower 90s from NYC and further west/southwest. Along with humid conditions, heat index values are expected to reach 100 degrees.

With cloud cover clearing up, destabilization is expected to quickly take place with much higher CAPE values, up to 3,500 J/kg, and lift index down to at least -8. Unlike previous severe weather events, the higher shear is located over the higher instability areas, further enhancing the severe weather potential. Widespread storms are expected to develop towards Pennsylvania and Ohio soon, and are easily expected to maintain themselves as they move east through PA and into New Jersey and SE NY, perhaps solidifying into a MCS. The biggest risk with this evening’s storms is damaging wind gusts, especially if a MCS does end up developing. Should one develop, central/northern Pennsylvania into central/northern New Jersey appear to be the target area for this to happen, with widespread damaging wind gusts and power outages a threat from today’s storms should a MCS develop. Other risks today are heavy rainfall, with precipitable water values over 2 inches, as well as hail. Stay tuned for more information on today’s severe weather outbreak with updates throughout the afternoon and evening.


NYC Area Weather Twitter updates:

Additional updates from this day can be found in the NYC Area Weather twitter page.

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