July 23, 2012 Noon Update

1:00 PM: Additional Storms Expected Today

Scattered heavy thunderstorms were observed early this morning in northern parts of the area, where radar estimates show localized totals above 1 inch of rain focusing over SE NY. The cold front is still currently in the north central US near Wisconsin, gradually approaching the region. Some models, especially the short range HRRR models, showed widespread storm development taking place this afternoon, some of it severe, but at this time the regional radar is still mostly quiet with the exception of a heavy storm near Sussex county moving SE.

More scattered storms are expected to form over NY and PA over the next few hours, making their way SE into the area later by the afternoon and evening hours, although severe activity is unlikely to become widespread today for the area. The cold front will move through late tonight, with dry conditions expected tomorrow along with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most, slightly cooler near the coast and warmer in the immediate NYC area, although some models are hinting at isolated storms late tonight with the cold front passage.

The next forecast discussion will be posted on Tuesday, with more information on the late week storm outlook.

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