July 23, 2012 Brief Update

12:30 AM: Following yesterday’s noon update, additional storms formed in the afternoon and evening hours, but most of the activity stayed well to the north/NW of the area, with the main afternoon/evening activity focusing over Sussex county, where two strong/severe storms were observed, although both weakened once moving past NW NJ, with the second storm producing a weakening area of light-moderate rain and thunder as it reached NYC prior to dissipating.

The cold front is still near Michigan, slowly moving towards the region, while the warm front is stuck over Connecticut into central NY state. The cold front will move through before the mid afternoon hours, although very little, if any rain is expected with the front, and temperatures are expected to be even warmer tomorrow, in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area, including eastern areas, with a NW/WNW wind.

Forecast Update:

Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s across most of the area. A stormier end to the week is expected, however, with more rain between Thursday and Saturday. A low pressure will track not far to the north of the area on Thursday and Friday with the warm front expected to move through on Thursday. The exact timing of the warm front and how far north the low pressure ends up will determine how warm temperatures get, as clouds and possible storms are expected in the morning with potential clearing in the cloud cover by the afternoon/evening. Temperatures are generally expected to end up in the mid 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west/SW, with the warmest temperatures southwest of NYC, but if the low pressure is as north as currently modeled with enough clearing in the cloud cover, temperatures in the late afternoon may end up warmer than currently expected, perhaps up to the mid 90s. Long Island and southern CT are expected to be cooler with more cloud cover and shower activity. Humid conditions are expected as well, with higher heat index values expected in the warm sector. More information on Thursday’s update will be posted with a more detailed discussion on Tuesday.

With the low pressure staying north, the majority of the rain will stay to the north of the area. Despite this, additional showers and storms are expected with slightly cooler temperatures on Friday and especially on Saturday with the low pressure stuck over the region. The GFS remains the fastest model, much more than the rest of the model guidance, and is a clear outlier in its handling of the storm, although its latest 0z run is slower with the front, likely leading to a trend towards the rest of the guidance. Rain and clouds are expected to stick around on Saturday for the region, with drier conditions returning for Monday, although some clouds/storms are still likely to still stick around for at least parts of Sunday.

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