July 19, 2012: Chilly Rain Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

– Much cooler tomorrow with rain; highs in 70s with locally heavy rain
– Gradual warm up throughout weekend
– Highs in mid-upper 80s return next week with more storms


Today’s Observations:

Mainly cloudy skies were observed today with scattered showers, locally heavy, especially in the morning and early afternoon hours. Cloud cover held much longer than expected today, and as a result temperatures were much cooler than expected, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the entire area. For parts of the area, however, the high temperatures were observed in the early overnight hours as temperatures were still cooling after yesterday’s 100 degree heat.

The regional radar from late this evening posted to the left shows steady light to moderate rain slowly entering the western parts of the area. As a wave of low pressure forms along the stalled cold front, periods of light to moderate rain, locally heavy, will continue tonight and throughout most of Friday, with amounts locally above 1-2 inches along with chilly high temperatures, only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures will gradually warm up by the weekend, with temperatures returning into the mid to upper 80s by next week with more storm chances.

Friday – Weekend: Rainy, Then Drier

A wave of low pressure is slowly forming in the Mid Atlantic region and will slowly move east, spreading widespread rain throughout the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday. Additional rain is expected to build in behind the current area in southeastern NY, although this is a case where the models have difficulty handling the exact location of the narrow axis of heavy rain; some of today’s models shifted south with the rain, some of them so far south that NYC was barely on the northern edge of the rain, yet the latest radar shows the rain focusing to the north of NYC. There are still some short range minor uncertainties, although more rain is now expected for the interior areas, especially over western NJ and SE NY, with localized amounts above 1-2 inches. The light-moderate rain will continue throughout most of Friday, with southern CT less likely to see rain and places west (northwest and southwest) of NYC more likely to see heavier localized totals. There are still some short range uncertainties, however, and short range updates will be posted on Friday. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the areas that end up under the steadier rain for most of the day, with lower to mid 70s further east.

With the wave of low pressure moving out, drier conditions will return for most of Saturday as well as Sunday, with partly sunny skies and temperatures warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday and the lower to mid 80s on Sunday.

Next Week: Warmer, More Storms

The next cold front will approach the region on Monday, with highs expected to warm up into the lower to mid 80s across the area with parts of northern NJ and NYC reaching the upper 80s if there are less clouds than expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Another trough will move into the region by the middle of next week with highs likely returning into the upper 70s to mid 80s range before likely warming up again towards the end of next week. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

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