July 10, 2012: Heat, Humidity To Return

Forecast Highlights:

– Seasonable temps through Thursday; isolated storms possible Weds.
– Gradual warm up, increase in humidity going into weekend, next week
– Scattered storm activity to return starting on weekend


Today’s Observations:

With a trough still in place across the Northeast, seasonable temperatures were observed again, with high temperatures ending up similar to those of yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and in the lower to mid 80s in Long Island and southern CT. A few isolated storms were observed near NW NJ tonight; although the probability of rain wasn’t high, the potential was there for isolated storms today. There is also a risk of isolated storms for Wednesday.

Similar temperatures are expected to continue through Thursday; afterwards, a warmer air mass will move into the region, and as the Bermuda high spreads further west, a hot and humid pattern is expected to develop starting on Friday, with temperatures generally in the upper 80s and 90s away from the coast except for stormier days.

Wednesday – Thursday: Similar Conditions Continue

With little change in the air mass, similar conditions to those observed over the last two days will continue through Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s to 90 degrees from NYC and further north/west, and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. Temperatures may be a bit cooler on Wednesday depending on the coverage area of any isolated storm activity, which will especially focus north/west of NYC. Mostly sunny skies are expected again for Thursday with parts of NE NJ perhaps reaching 90 degrees.

Friday – Beyond: Hot, Humid, Some Storms

By Friday, a warmer air mass will move in slowly, with temperatures warming up into the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west. Cooler temperatures are expected for Long Island/S CT due to more of an onshore wind, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s with some areas passing 85 degrees. Similar temperatures are expected for Saturday, if not slightly warmer, with dry conditions expected for both days.

Starting around Saturday night into the early week, more widespread storms are expected across the region. The GFS model is likely exaggerating the coverage area of rain and thus underestimating temperatures, which have the potential to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s on most days with slightly cooler temperatures in Long Island/S CT, although there will still be scattered storms across parts of the area during this time frame, with cooler temperatures during the stormier days. At this time, Sunday into Sunday night appears to have an enhanced risk of storms, although the exact timing is still uncertain this far out with this set up. With high precipitable water values above 2 inches, storms will be capable of producing heavy rain. The outlook beyond the early week becomes more uncertain due to the time range, although there is no break from the warm pattern in sight through the foreseeable range at this time.

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