July 1, 2012: Storms Possible For July 4th

Forecast Highlights:

– Temperatures to slightly cool down this week

– Storms, possibly strong, likely for 4th of July
– Additional heat surge, storm potential next weekend


Today’s Observations:

With a large ridge still covering most of the US, the 4th day of the heat wave for some and 3rd day for most of the area was observed, with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower to mid 90s inland, mid to upper 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 80s to lower 90s in Long Island/S CT. The temperature forecast verified for eastern areas but was a bit too cool for NYC and further west.

There is no widespread relief from the heat expected through the next week, which will especially continue to be a problem in the Mid Atlantic where a very damaging and deadly derecho moved through on Friday, causing widespread power outages during the hottest period of the summer so far. Storms will remain a possibility for parts of the region as well, especially on the 4th of July when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected.

Monday – Tuesday Outlook:

With a cold front moving though, temperatures will slightly cool down for Monday and Tuesday, but will remain warmer than average. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s across the area for both days, peaking in the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected with storm activity staying to the south.

Wednesday – Next Weekend: Some Heat, Storms Return

A brief surge of warmer 850mb temperatures will move into the region ahead of another approaching cool front on Wednesday, setting up for thunderstorms across the region. Temperatures are still slightly uncertain due to the cloud cover and storms, although at this time generally appear to be in the upper 80s-low 90s range from NYC and north/west and the mid 80s to perhaps 90 degrees further east. Parameters aren’t too impressive for Wednesday, although the possibility is there that some strong/severe thunderstorms end up affecting the area. The exact timing of the storms is still slightly uncertain but appears to be directed towards the afternoon/evening hours.

Behind the Wednesday storm activity, slightly cooler temperatures will return for Thursday, similar to those of Monday and Tuesday, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. Following the briefly cooler temperatures, however, another surge of heat is expected to move through the region for Friday and parts of the weekend, with temperatures again surging into the 90s, perhaps getting into the upper 90s range again in the warmer case scenario. The exact timing of the next cold front is uncertain, but appears to be towards either Sunday or early next week. Stay tuned for more information on this week’s and next weekend’s outlook.

2 thoughts on “July 1, 2012: Storms Possible For July 4th

  1. Anonymous Reply

    Man, this is very important, I went to the National Weather Service, National Weather Service in Upton, NY issued a ”Hazardous Weather Outlook”. The advisory say ” The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed the Area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather on Wednesday” which mean that we will have a potential for Severe Thunderstorms.

    • NYC Weather Reply

      Wednesday does have the possibility for severe weather, as SPC highlighted today and my update also mentioned. Regardless of whether storms end up strong/severe, which they may very well do so in some places, rain is expected to fall on Wednesday for at least parts of the area.

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