June 6, 2012: Temperatures Slowly Warm Up

Forecast Highlights:

– Additional storms on Thursday; temperatures warm up
– Less warmth for next week expected
– Next storm potential towards mid next week


Today’s Observations:

Temperatures continued to slowly warm up as the low pressure that affected the region over the last few days moved towards Newfoundland, with the trough slightly weakening. High temperatures reached the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further north/west, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s in Long Island and southern CT. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were observed today, focusing over southern Connecticut and southern parts of NYC, with two strong to borderline low-end severe storms affecting parts of Brooklyn and Staten Island.

Temperatures will continue to gradually warm up later this week, reaching the lower 80s in parts of the area by Friday. Despite the original outlook for a larger warm spell, however, there are clear indications showing up that a back door cold front will move through, preventing the large warmth from building in and once again keeping seasonable temperatures in place.

Thursday – Friday: Some Rain, Warming Up

Warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures rising into the lower to mid 70s in Long Island/S CT and the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area. Temperatures may get close to 80 degrees in parts of NE NJ. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again during the afternoon hours, some of which could be strong, possibly producing heavy rain and/or hail. Friday will continue the warm up, with partly sunny skies, a risk of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, and high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the area, getting close to 85 degrees near NYC.

Weekend – Next Week: Not As Warm As First Thought

Originally, it had appeared that a surge of warmth would build in, with temperatures surging above 85 degrees for parts of the region, including the area. This scenario did not involve much of a back door cold front, as a low pressure on Saturday/Sunday was shown to stay well to the north. Since then, the models have changed the outcome, instead showing the low pressure moving through the region, resulting in scattered storms to the north of the area on Saturday (NAM shows storms over the area but may be too far south), which would then bring a back door cold front through New England and the NYC area. Although it is a new trend, based on the current pattern as well as model trends throughout the spring, I am siding with the back door cold front scenario, as with the current pattern, almost every potential for a back door cold front ended up verifying in some way, with the late May warm spell the main exception.

The new outlook calls for the back door cold front to move through around Sunday. Saturday is expected to be partly cloudy with a risk of isolated thunderstorms north of NYC with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area, with mid 70s closer to the coast. With the rain previously expected to move through Canada moving through the region instead, scattered thunderstorms are possible on Saturday night in the area. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing of any cold front, although temperatures likely around Sunday are expected to cool down, with highs in the 70s across the area due to an onshore flow developing. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the warmth will briefly move in ahead of an approaching cold front, with highs possibly warming up into the upper 70s to lower 80s, possibly mid 80s, away from the coast, with a risk of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front moves through.

There is still some uncertainty with the outlook from Sunday through Wednesday as this is still a recent change. Stay tuned for more information on the medium range outlook.

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