June 4, 2012: Chilly, Rainy Week Continues

Forecast Overview:

– Scattered showers last through Thursday
– Temperatures gradually warming up this week
– Heat, 90+ degrees may return next week


Today’s Observations:

With a low pressure stuck off the coast of New England producing widespread showers, some of them heavy in the morning in parts of the area, along with a trough and a chilly air mass, unusually chilly temperatures for June were observed today, with highs only in the lower to mid 60s across the area. Central Park’s high temperature of 63 degrees was 13 degrees below the average high of 76 degrees for June 4th.

Although the trough will stick around through the rest of the week, conditions will gradually improve, with temperatures slowly warming up throughout the week with additional scattered showers through Thursday. By the weekend and into next week, as the trough moves out of the region and a ridge builds in, there is a potential for temperatures to return into the 90s for parts of the region, possibly including the area.

Tuesday – Friday: Mostly Cloudy, Rainy, Chilly

As previously mentioned, conditions will gradually improve throughout the week, with temperatures slowly rising. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with isolated showers, especially in the afternoon hours focusing north/west of NYC. With less cloud cover and rain, warmer temperatures are expected, reaching the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area, although these temperatures are still noticeably cooler than average.

The warming trend will continue through Wednesday and Thursday, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday and the lower to mid 70s on Thursday. Additional scattered showers are expected, with the focus during the afternoon hours. Thursday’s showers may contain thunderstorms as well. By Friday, with the trough starting to move out, partly sunny skies are expected with a few isolated showers possible but likely no widespread rain, with highs reaching the lower to upper 70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures near NYC.

Weekend – Next Week: Another Heat Surge

The trough will move out in time for the weekend, resulting in partly cloudy skies and seasonably warm temperatures, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area. Some models indicate the potential for isolated showers/storms on Sunday, although at this time there does not appear to be any widespread risk of rain during the weekend.

Going into early next week, there is some slight uncertainty regarding the potential Sunday weak low which some models, such as the CMC, show as a cold front, while others such as the DGEX show as having no impact on the pattern. It is possible that the air mass may cool down a bit around Sunday, perhaps to a larger extent than the GFS is showing, but likely not to the point where a cold front moves through the region and completely suppresses the heat. Regardless of the outcome early next week, with the heat building up in the central US, a surge of heat is likely to affect the region around the start and/or the middle of next week, with temperatures returning into the 90s for parts of the region, possibly including the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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