June 27, 2012: Heat Wave Starts Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

– Major heat wave covering large parts of US to extend into NYC
– 90+ degrees return Thursday-Sunday
– Storms possible Friday morning


Today’s Observations:

With the upper level low drifting away from the region, mostly sunny skies were observed today with temperatures warming back up closer to average, with highs reaching the lower 80s across most of the area with mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. Not surprisingly, Central Park had the lowest temperature in NYC with a high of 81, with Newark the hot spot with a high of 86.

A massive heat surge which has produced widespread 100 degree heat, even reaching the 110s in Kansas, will spread east to cover almost the entire central and southern US, with the area near the northern edge of the heat. As a result, 3 or 4 days of 90+ degrees are expected especially away from the coast, with temperatures possibly reaching the upper 90s again away from the coast.

Friday – Monday: Heat Wave Expected; Some Storms Possible

The warm up will continue through Thursday as well, with most of the area reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs, getting close to 95 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Mostly sunny skies are expected again with lighter WSW winds.

By Friday, the warmest 850mb temperatures will move through, reaching the 20-22C range. The models have been consistent with a shortwave moving through on Friday morning, although how much convection forms is still uncertain. For now, I am mentioning a risk of scattered thunderstorms for late Thursday night into Friday morning. The rest of Friday is likely to be dry with partly sunny skies and hot temperatures. There is still some slight uncertainty with how hot temperatures get, although I am siding with a NAM/ECM blend, leaning a bit below the NAM, with highs in the mid 90s inland, mid to upper 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 80s to mid 90s in Long Island/S CT away from the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday are expected to be hot as well especially west and southwest of NYC, but likely not as hot as Friday as the warmest temperatures aloft slowly shift further south. Mid 90s are still expected further west, with mid 80s to lower 90s in Long Island and southern CT. There is a slight potential for isolated storms, although it is increasingly likely that most of, if not the entire weekend may end up dry. Temperatures will gradually cool back down into the 80s next week, although no significant cool spell appears to be on the way.

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