June 26, 2012: Blast of Heat Coming Up

Forecast Highlights:

– Temperatures to gradually warm up this week
– Heat surge moves in Thursday to Monday; heat wave possible
– Storm potential for parts of area this weekend


Today’s Observations:

With an upper level low in place over the region, widespread cloud cover was observed with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The ULL in place also brought temperatures colder than average across the area, only peaking in the lower to mid 70s across the area when average temperatures during this time of the year are in the lower to mid 80s. Central Park observed a high of 72 degrees, which once again makes it the coldest temperature in NYC, a trend that has been observed since the previous heat wave.

The upper level won’t last for long, however. A strong ridge with 110 degree heat in the central United States will extend east to cover most of the central and southern US, with the northern Mid Atlantic region including NYC in the northern boundary of this massive blast of heat. With the area near the boundary, the Friday through Monday time frame has the makings of a potentially active pattern, with heat and humidity away from coastal areas with a risk of thunderstorms.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

The ULL will begin to move out with temperatures moderating closer to average. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the area tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of the area. Parts of the immediate NYC area will reach 85 degrees. Breezy NW winds are expected again.

Thursday – Early Next Week: Blast Of Heat; Storm Potential

As previously mentioned, a massive blast of heat will move into the central and southern US, resulting in widespread 100+ degree heat, getting as far north as the Ohio Valley and the southern Mid Atlantic. The northern Mid Atlantic will be near the northern gradient of the heat, which makes for an interesting pattern with both heat and thunderstorm potential. Despite 850mb temperatures near 20C supporting heat, the question of the wind direction, especially further east, and the amount of storms/cloud cover comes up, which limits just how hot temperatures will get.

Thursday will still have mostly sunny skies with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area, approaching 95 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area but likely staying below the 95 degree mark. Southern CT and coastal parts of Long Island will be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, possibly reaching and/or slightly passing 90 degrees. By Friday, the heat gradient sets up near the area, sticking around through Sunday. If there is enough sunshine especially through the afternoon hours, temperatures away from the coast are capable of warming up well into the 90s, with cooler temperatures near the coastal areas, likely in the 80s and possibly the 90s if winds end up more from the west than the south. The thunderstorm potential is uncertain, although there is a risk of thunderstorms each day between Friday and Sunday, with the potential for severe thunderstorms also present. This risk, however, does not mean that it will rain across most of the area each day, but rather that a potential exists for rain each day. By early-mid next week, a weak trough will likely move into the region, with highs cooling back down into the 80s. Stay tuned for more information on the heat and storm outlook for the weekend.

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