June 2, 2012: June or April?

Forecast Highlights:

– Seasonably Warm Day On Sunday
– Highs To Remain In 60s, Low 70s This Upcoming Week
– Slow Warm Up By Next Weekend


Today’s Observations:

After last night’s rain event, which dropped over an inch of rain in parts of Long Island and southern CT, a low pressure split and slowly moved into eastern New England. The western half of the area saw less cloud cover, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area. Further northeast, however, rain and cooler temperatures were observed, with temperatures reaching 66 degrees in SE Connecticut.

As a strong ridge in Greenland pushes west and south, the low pressure will stall offshore, resulting in nearly a week of partly to mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers and highs only in the 60s to lower 70s in a pattern that resembles April or May more than June.

Sunday’s Outlook:

Partly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow, with increasing cloud cover by the second part of the day. Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s inland (NW NJ, SE NY) and the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially in the afternoon hours and mainly north/west of NYC.

Next Week: Chilly, Mostly Cloudy, Rainy

The strong block that has remained stationary over Greenland for the last few days will begin to drop further southwest, preventing the low pressure from moving out of the region and resulting in a period of mainly cloudy, chilly and occasionally rainy weather that will last until at least Friday. The average high temperature in the first week of June near NYC is approximately in the upper 70s; due to the trough in place, however, temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 60s on Monday and Tuesday, possibly Wednesday as well, making the first week of June end up even colder than the middle of March, when temperatures surged into the upper 70s.

Mainly cloudy skies with occasional showers are expected on Monday. The rain is not expected to be heavy, although the entire area is at risk of seeing at least some rain during the day. Temperatures will be cooler, reaching the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area. The pattern will remain mostly unchanged through Thursday, with additional scattered showers expected on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, mainly focusing on the afternoon hours and north/west of NYC. Temperatures will gradually warm up, reaching the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday, mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday, and the upper 60s to lower 70s for most of the area on Thursday.

With the trough slowly moving out, temperatures are likely to warm up more into the 70s on Friday, although scattered showers are still possible. By the weekend, some improvements in the pattern will take place, with the trough pushing far enough offshore to allow for a high pressure to build in, resulting in drier conditions, less cloud cover, and temperatures warming up first into the 70s and perhaps back into the 80s by early next week in the warmest scenario. With a heat surge moving into the central US and the trough sticking offshore close to SE Canada, however, heat is unlikely to quickly build into the region, and seasonable temperatures are likely to continue into at least early next week with the possibility of isolated shower activity but with no widespread rain likely at least as of now. Should any heat affect the area, it would do so at the very earliest around early-mid next week, if not later.

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