June 12, 2012: Seasonable Temperatures Continue

Forecast Highlights:

– Seasonable temperatures through next week
– After tomorrow, dry until next week


Short Range Outlook:

As mentioned with this afternoon’s update, rain moved into the area much earlier than originally expected, starting around 11 AM-12 PM as opposed to the mid to late afternoon hours. The rain is already clearing the western parts of the area, and will continue to move east, clearing most of the immediate NYC area by 3-4 AM, although the rain will remain stuck over Long Island and southern Connecticut for a longer period of time tomorrow.

Behind this system, a high pressure will build into the region with another heat surge moving into the central US and Canada, but influence from an onshore flow due to a further west high pressure as well as an offshore upper level low will keep dry conditions, fair skies and seasonable temperatures through the weekend and into parts of next week as well.

Forecast Overview:

With the pattern becoming quiet following the departure of the current storm, there is not much to talk about in tonight’s discussion other than a long lasting stretch of seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. The rain will clear places west of NYC tomorrow morning and places east of NYC in the afternoon hours, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in Long Island/S CT and the lower to mid 70s in the rest of the area, which is once again colder than average.

The high pressure will build in on Thursday and stick around into next week, providing mostly to partly sunny skies for this time period. With the high pressure not in the ideal location for heat, NE winds are expected with a cooler air mass, keeping temperatures close to average while the Great Lakes region experiences the worst of the heat. Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s in Long Island/S CT and the mid to upper 70s elsewhere on Thursday. With little changes expected in the weather pattern, similar conditions will continue through at least Tuesday or Wednesday next week with temperatures slowly warming up towards the end of the time period. As the ridge begins to shift east and break down, there is a possibility that a short lasting surge of heat moves through late in the week. Little, if any, rain is expected to fall through at least Wednesday.

Precipitation and severe weather across the region going into next week appear to be relatively quiet as well. The tropics are also quiet at this time in the Atlantic basin, although there is the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico/SE US region around the June 19-25 time frame.

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