6:30 PM: Scattered Storms Developing
After temperatures peaked in the 80s for parts of the area today, isolated thunderstorms formed over NW NJ and interior SE NY. Most storms are below severe levels, producing heavy rain, although there is a severe thunderstorm that tracked from NW NJ to Morris county, where it produced strong winds and likely hail, and is currently tracking south headed into central NJ. The three other heavy thunderstorms are near central Sussex and north Passaic counties, and will move SSE into Morris and eastern Passaic counties over the next 1/2 hour. Otherwise, no widespread storm development is expected.
8:50 AM: Isolated Storms Today
Despite the instability in place, storms failed to form yesterday afternoon, with cloudy skies and isolated showers taking place instead. Since then, the approaching cold front has stalled not too far to the north of NYC, and will continue to gradually move southwest throughout the day, passing NYC in the afternoon. As a result, Long Island and southern CT will see partly sunny skies today with highs peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will quickly warm up from NYC and further west/south, reaching the lower to mid 80s in NYC and the mid to upper 80s in northern NJ, possibly reaching 90 degrees towards central NJ.
With the cold front moving through this afternoon, isolated storm development is possible especially west of NYC after 3 PM today. Any storm that does form will likely stay below severe levels but may contain heavy rain. Temperatures will cool down tonight with the cold front to the southwest, with highs staying in the 70s to lower 80s from Monday through Wednesday, with a locally heavy rain and thunderstorm event expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday. More information will be posted on the mid week storm with tonight’s discussion.