May 4, 2012 Storm Updates

Below, a few updates will be posted this afternoon and evening regarding today’s severe storm potential.

8:30 PM: Storms Failed To Develop

I was unable to post an update at 6 PM due to an internet connection problem, although the storms failed to develop near SE NY and northeastern PA as some of the models showed, which instead kept the best risk of storms over central PA and further southeast, as mentioned with the 4 PM update; the NAM model still shows isolated activity late tonight, but not much more than an isolated shower, if even that, is expected.

A full update will be posted late tonight regarding chilly temperatures expected for next week once again, along with the next rain event.


4:10 PM: Storms May Develop Later

After the locally heavy thunderstorms early this morning, skies have cleared across most of the area early this afternoon, with temperatures warming up well into the 70s west of NYC. As the latest radar posted to the left shows, there are scattered thunderstorms forming over central Pennsylvania and moving ESE. Most of the storms currently in PA are on track to stay south of NYC, which will likely keep the highest risk of locally severe storms from central Pennsylvania further east to central/southern NJ and southeast to Delaware. Isolated storms are expected to affect NYC and places further north, although I am currently keeping an eye on northeastern PA and southeastern NY, as most models that show storms affecting NYC also have storms developing in that region around 6-7 PM. The next update will be posted towards 6 PM.

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