Below, updates will be posted on the severe weather expected across the region today.
*Short term forecast graphics will be posted to the left of each post, including a radar image. Click on the images to view them in a larger size.*
9:25 PM: Additional Strong Storms
Since the last update, although the original storms in Morris County weakened, additional strong storm development took place over the last hour focusing over NYC and the north/west suburbs. A low-end severe thunderstorms is currently located near Manhattan, and will move NNE to affect Bronx and south Westchester counties over the next 1/2 hour, producing strong winds and possibly small hail. An additional heavy storm in eastern Bergen will move into SE Rockland county. Another strong storm is located near SW CT and is moving to the northeast.
Although these storms were not present earlier this evening, most of these storms are still below severe criteria. Earlier this afternoon, it appeared that there was a higher risk of severe weather, but the original storms failed to hold together.
7:55 PM: Severe Storms Weakening
The squall line affected the westernmost parts of the area over the last hour with heavy thunderstorms. As the storms moved further east, however, the original area of strong storms in N NJ fell apart, and activity has struggled to pick up. The only strong/severe storms remaining in the area are near southeastern Orange county, moving east into northern Rockland and northern Westchester counties, and near Morris county, moving NE into east Passaic and western Bergen counties. These storms are capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds and possibly small hail.
It was originally thought that despite the lack of shear, the storms would still be able to maintain themselves, especially with decent instability, but the storms failed to maintain their intensity once reaching the area. With instability quickly decreasing, the development of widespread severe storms is no longer expected for the rest of the area. For the remainder of the evening, occasional thunderstorms, locally strong, will move into the rest of the immediate NYC area between 8-10 PM, with some of the storms ending up strong in SE NY and SW CT, where gusty winds are possible with the storms. The storms are likely to continue weakening as they move into Long Island and the rest of southern CT later tonight.
If any unexpected additional development takes place, an update will be posted here. Otherwise, the next update will be posted later tonight, discussing the upcoming heavy rain event for Friday night into the first half of Saturday.
6:50 PM: Two severe thunderstorms have just entered the area. The first is located near NW Sussex county and is slowly moving to the NE, and will affect western Orange county over the next 1/2 hour. This storm contains heavy rain and is capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Another storm is located near the NW edge of Warren county, and will move into portions of Sussex county over the next 1/2 hour, also producing heavy rain and potentially gusty winds/small hail.
5:00 PM: Severe Storms Approaching
Over the last few days, a hot, humid, moist and unstable air mass was in place across most of the region, and as a result, widespread severe storms are forming across the interior parts of the region ahead of the approaching cold front. Plenty of severe weather has been observed so far in western PA and northern NY, and a strong squall line, focusing over central NY as seen on the regional radar to the left, is about to move into the rest of eastern NY, which is where the worst of today’s storms are expected to take place with widespread wind damage, hail, and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Up until now, the area has observed mainly sunny skies especially away from the coast, with temperatures quickly warming up into the 90s for parts of the immediate NYC area. With humid conditions, heat index has even reached 100 degrees in some places. There is enough instability and moisture to support thunderstorms in the area tonight, although the bulk of today’s activity will focus over New York and Pennsylvania, with the squall line weakening and becoming more elevated as it enters the area tonight. The worst of the storms in the NYC area will be towards NW NJ and Orange county, NY, which I placed under a 30% risk of severe storms. The 30% risk also extends into NYC, although the best risk of severe storms is further north/west.
In the western parts of the area, the squall line will enter in the evening, likely after 6-8 PM, with heavy thunderstorms, some of them severe with strong wind gusts and hail. In the immediate NYC area, slightly weaker storms are expected, with heavy thunderstorms expected, some of them strong with a few severe storms. The main risk will be heavy rain along with gusty winds and small hail, although some, if not most of the storms will remain below severe levels. Further east into Long Island and S CT, the line will become weaker, with heavy showers and thunderstorms, a few storms severe but with no widespread severe activity expected.
Stay tuned for additional updates later tonight as the storms enter the area.