May 29, 2012: Cooler Pattern Develops

Forecast Highlights:

– Cooler pattern develops starting Thursday
– Heavy rain potential Friday Night – Early Saturday
– No heat in sight through mid next week


Today’s Observations:

Today was the last hot and humid day across the area as a cold front approached, bringing a squall line through the region with widespread severe storms in Pennsylvania/New York and isolated strong/severe storm activity in parts of the NYC area. Temperatures were once again warmer than average, peaking in the lower 90s from NYC and further north/west except for Sussex and Central Park, which peaked at 89 degrees, and in the lower to upper 80s in Long Island and southern CT, which was slightly warmer than expected.

Another very warm day is expected tomorrow but with less humidity as the cold front comes through. Temperatures will gradually cool down, only reaching the 70s for highs on Friday. The next rain event will affect the area on Friday night into Saturday morning, but no warm spell is expected to build in anytime soon as a trough remains stuck over the region into early next week.

Wednesday – Friday Outlook:

Partly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with a risk of scattered thunderstorms north/west of NYC in the afternoon and evening hours. Warm temperatures are expected again, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island/S CT and the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west, passing 85 degrees in some areas.

By Thursday, mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. Increasing cloud cover is expected on Friday as a low pressure develops in the Ohio Valley region, with a risk of thunderstorms later on in the day. Highs will cool down into the upper 60s to mid 70s for most of the area.

Saturday – Beyond: Chilly Temperatures Continue

With the intensifying low pressure moving into the Great Lakes, where an unseasonably chilly rain will fall, a cold front will move through the region, providing a period of heavy rain and perhaps thunder on Friday night into Saturday morning. At least 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with locally up to 1 inch possible. Some clearing in the cloud cover is expected for the afternoon and evening on Saturday with a risk of isolated showers; temperatures will fail to warm up significantly, peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area.

A strong block near Greenland will keep a trough in place over the region, with the cold front slowing down once passing through the area, redeveloping offshore with an area of low pressure likely to remain stuck near eastern New England as the Greenland block expands into Canada and slides further south. As a result, a solid area of high pressure will fail to build in behind as an area of low pressure remains in place near New England, resulting in partial cloud cover, isolated showers, and temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s from Sunday through the middle of next week, although no widespread heavy rain event will take place. Beyond early next week, uncertainty increases, although with the strong ridge in Canada, any significant heat spell is unlikely to take place at this time.

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