May 27, 2012: Additional Storms Through Tuesday

Forecast Highlights:

– Hot, humid on Monday and Tuesday away from coast
– Scattered strong storms on Monday, more widespread Tuesday night
– Additional rain possible on Friday, next weekend


Today’s Observations:

Partly sunny skies were observed in parts of the area today as the second day of very warm and humid conditions affected the region. Isolated thunderstorm activity was observed in parts of the area today, most notably affecting northern NJ, where amounts locally near/above 1 inch were observed, but no widespread strong storm activity was observed. Temperatures were warm but not as warm as yesterday, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern CT, which was slightly warmer than expected yesterday.

Monday will be another hot and humid day with a risk of isolated storm activity, although an approaching cold front will result in a more widespread thunderstorm potential on Tuesday, followed by drier conditions and cooler temperatures. The dry conditions won’t last for long, however, as there is another rain potential for late in the week into next weekend.

Monday’s Outlook:

Partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west and the lower to upper 80s in Long Island and southern CT. Parts of the immediate coast may fail to reach 80 degrees. There is a risk of isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon hours, although no widespread storm activity is expected. Should any widespread activity develop, an afternoon update will be posted, otherwise the next update will be posted on Monday night. With humidity expected, heat index is likely to reach the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area, possibly getting close to 95 degrees.

Tuesday – Beyond: Rain Continues, Temperatures Cool Down

Tuesday will be the last very warm and humid day as a cold front approaches from the west, resulting in widespread strong/severe thunderstorm activity across the region. During the day, most of the severe storm activity will focus to the west of the area with a risk of scattered strong thunderstorms west of NYC in the afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the mid to locally upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island/S CT, getting near the mid 80s closer to NYC. Storms, locally strong/severe, are then expected to affect the area later in the afternoon into the evening and parts of the overnight hours. Drier conditions are expected for Wednesday with partly sunny skies and less humidity but with warm temperatures still sticking around, reaching the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.

Behind the cold front, with a strong block developing and persisting over Greenland, a somewhat cooler pattern with troughs more frequent than ridges will develop. Thursday is also likely to be dry with highs cooling down into the 70s and the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl staying southeast, although by Friday and parts of the weekend another low pressure will approach from the west, bringing another risk of rain and thunderstorms.

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