May 26, 2012: Heat, Humidity Continue

Forecast Highlights:

– Heat, humidity last through Tuesday
– Risk of scattered storms continues through Tuesday
– Cooler, drier ending to next week
TROPICS: Beryl Approaches Landfall


Today’s Observations:

With a large ridge building into the region, warmer temperatures were observed across the region today, with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island and southern CT, verifying yesterday’s temperature outlook for today. Scattered strong thunderstorm activity formed today, affecting mostly places north and west of NYC. The biggest activity was in northwestern NJ and Rockland county in NY, where slow moving storms dumped over 1-2 inches of rain.

Heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday, with additional scattered strong storms north/west of NYC on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will move through between Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which could be strong/severe. A cooler air mass will return behind the cold front, although there is still no prolonged break from the rain as there are additional signs for an additional rainstorm late in the week, possibly into the weekend.

Sunday – Monday Outlook:

The warm air mass will remain over the region for the next few days, resulting in additional heat and humidity. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 70s in most of Long Island/southern CT, reaching the lower 80s in some spots. Scattered thunderstorms, locally heavy, are likely north/west of NYC especially in the late afternoon/evening hours.

Warmer temperatures are expected for Monday, with SW winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern CT. Depending on the amount of cloud cover and the timing of the scattered storm activity in the afternoon, parts of NE NJ may reach the lower 90s. Humid conditions are expected again, resulting in a heat index higher than the actual temperature.

Tuesday – Beyond: Rain Continues

The cold front will affect the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, with more widespread thunderstorms, possibly strong, expected. Hot and humid conditions are still expected for Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, with storm activity more likely towards the second part of the day and into the overnight hours. Warm but less humid conditions are likely for Wednesday with temperatures still reaching the 80s away from the coast, with isolated storm activity possible but likely ending up less widespread than that of Tuesday.

Drier conditions are likely on Thursday as well with subtropical storm Beryl’s remnants passing to the southeast of the area. By later in the week and into parts of the weekend, however, another low pressure will approach from the west, likely resulting in increased storm activity. Temperatures are expected to be cooler, cooling down into the 70s for most of the area for highs from Thursday into the weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

Tropics: Beryl Approaching Landfall

Subtropical storm Beryl continued to slightly intensify throughout the day as it approached the coast of northeastern Florida, and as of NHC’s 11 PM update had 50 mph sustained winds with a minimum pressure of 998 mb. Beryl is currently located southeast of South Carolina, and is moving SW at 7 mph. Beryl is expected to make landfall in NE Florida late on Sunday, weakening to a depression overland. Afterwards, Beryl is expected to move back northeast and offshore, although by the time that it does so around Tuesday/Wednesday it will begin to gain extra-tropical characteristics, with the remnants of Beryl accelerating NE parallel to the coast but mostly staying offshore.

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