May 21, 2012: Week Of Rain/Storms Begins

Forecast Highlights:

– Scattered showers, storms last through Friday
– Warmer weekend; slight risk of storms
– Warmth possible next week


Today’s Observations:

With a cutoff low pressure approaching from the south, scattered showers and thunderstorms affected the area throughout the day. Earlier this morning, an unexpected band of heavy rain and thunderstorms affected the immediate NYC area, with rain amounts locally as high as 2-3 inches. Temperatures were steady in the 60s across the area, with the coolest temperatures in the immediate NYC area, where highs reached the lower to mid 60s. The warmest temperatures were observed in southern Connecticut.

The latest radar posted to the left shows that additional rain is approaching from the southeast, with scattered showers, locally heavy, lasting throughout the night and into Tuesday morning. Most places are expected to receive up to 1/2 inch of rain tonight, with isolated amounts up to 1-2 inches, likely focusing over the immediate NYC area. Even after this round of rain ends, an upper level low will keep partly-mostly cloudy skies and a risk of thunderstorms in place throughout the entire week, with somewhat warmer temperatures for the weekend but with a slight risk of isolated storms still in place.

Week Overview:

Cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with scattered showers/thunderstorms, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area with some mid 70s further inland. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with another risk of scattered storms, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 60s to lower 70s in Long Island/S CT.

At this time, it appears that additional cloud cover will move in for Thursday, with slightly cooler high temperatures likely along with another risk of showers and/or thunderstorms. Friday will be another partially wet day with temperatures slightly rising into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Next Weekend – Next Week:

By next weekend, likely focusing on Saturday, a brief surge of warmth will move through, with highs reaching the 80s away from coastal areas. Depending on the timing of the cold front, which is still somewhat uncertain, thunderstorms may be possible for Saturday night and/or Sunday, although this potential is still uncertain and it is possible that little, if any rain falls during the weekend.

The models once again show large differences for Sunday and next week, with some such as today’s earlier GFS runs bringing a well defined cold front through, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday/Monday followed by another surge of warmth, while others such as the latest 0z GFS and the 18z DGEX keep building the heat up, with 2+ days of 90 degree weather before a cold front moves through. Given typical trends this spring and the current pattern, I am siding with a solution leaning towards more cold front influence than the latest 0z GFS has, but likely not to the extent of a strong cold front clearing the region entirely, keeping temperatures potentially in the mid 70s to mid 80s range through early-mid next week. Stay tuned for more information as details become clearer.

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