May 17, 2012: Clouds, Showers Return Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

– Sunny skies, mild temperatures last through Saturday
– Mostly cloudy, occasional showers Sunday night-Wednesday
– Warmth potential for Memorial Day Weekend


Today’s Observations:

With a high pressure moving into the region, mostly sunny skies were observed today along with slightly cooler temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 70s across the area except for Danbury, CT and Montauk, NY which reached 69 degrees. Yesterday’s temperature forecast for today was nearly spot on.

The high pressure will keep mainly sunny conditions and highs in the 70s through Saturday, and until Sunday for parts of the area away from the coast. By Sunday night and Monday, a cutoff low will drift north into the region, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and scattered showers lasting through at least Wednesday.

Friday – Sunday Outlook:

Mainly sunny skies are expected to continue through Friday and Saturday along with temperatures steadily warming. Friday will be similar to today except for a NE/ENE wind instead of a NW wind, keeping the eastern areas cooler. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s across most of the area again, staying below the 70 degree mark in parts of eastern Long Island/SE CT, and perhaps reaching and/or passing 75 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Saturday will also have mainly sunny skies with a NE wind, although temperatures away from the coast are expected to end up warmer, with widespread upper 70s and a few lower 80s in northern NJ, SE NY and interior southern CT. Coastal parts of CT and Long Island are expected to stay in the lower to mid 70s with some areas closer to NYC getting into the upper 70s. As a cutoff low to the south slowly drifts north, increasing cloud cover is likely on Sunday, especially towards the second half of the day. There is some minor uncertainty with the timing of the clouds and the eventual showers, although siding with the slightly slower solutions, interior parts of the area are expected to reach the lower 80s, with places closer to the coast likely having temperatures similar to those of Saturday.

Next Week Outlook: Clouds, Showers For Early-Mid Week

Clouds are expected to move in towards Sunday night, with showers spreading in by Monday. Occasional showers are expected on Monday and Tuesday, although it will not rain the entire time in the entire area. Monday is likely to be the cooler day, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, possibly in the low 60s further east in parts of Long Island. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s for most places, ending up cooler again near coastal areas. Less cloud cover is likely on Wednesday with temperatures possibly ending up slightly warmer.

Uncertainty increases with the forecast going into next Thursday and beyond, although drier conditions are likely to return. A ridge is apparently becoming more likely to spread into the East by Memorial Day Weekend; most of the latest models currently focus the warmth well to the north/NW of the area, although considering that there is more than a week left, the models are likely to change the solution for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s outlook.

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