May 1, 2012: Some Showers To Continue

Forecast Highlights:

– Mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers through Thursday
– Brief warm surge on Friday and Saturday, 80+ degrees possible
– Cooler Temperatures Return Next Week


Today’s Overview:

Late last night into this morning, a round of heavy thunderstorms moved through the area, resulting in up to 1/4 inch of rain in NW NJ, interior SE NY and southern CT, with 1/4 to as much as 3/4 inch of rain across the rest of the area. By the late afternoon, cloud cover cleared and temperatures quickly went up in the western parts of the area. The temperature rise did not begin as early as expected and was not as quick, with temperatures ending up a few degrees colder than expected in the western half of the area, while the eastern half of the area was generally close to the forecast from last night.

Forecast Overview:

– Scattered showers are expected to develop late tonight, lasting through tomorrow with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. As a result, chilly temperatures are expected, peaking in the mid to upper 50s in the eastern half of the area and in the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further north/west. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday but with slightly warmer temperatures, possibly getting towards the mid-upper 60s in the western parts of the area.

– The warmer air mass will briefly move into the area around Friday, although there is still some uncertainty with how far the warmth can extend; the GFS has temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s in northern NJ, while the latest NAM run barely brings places west of NYC above 80 degrees. While places from NYC and further north/west are expected to see temperatures within the 70s, perhaps getting at least into the lower 80s further west, the eastern parts of the area will continue to see cooler temperatures, likely peaking in the 60s to the lower 70s at most for most places, and possibly failing to reach 60 degrees further east.

– Warm temperatures may continue into Saturday with another risk of scattered showers, although by Sunday there is less of a risk of rain with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. Temperatures will gradually cool down, with temperatures next week likely ending up closer to average as opposed to much warmer than average.

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