April 9, 2012 Brief Update

Wildfire Situation: After today’s windy conditions, with gusts up to 40-45 mph across a large part of the area, along with dry conditions once again, wildfires became more widespread across the region, with many wildfires, some large, in places such as Long Island and New Jersey. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for tomorrow through Tuesday with scattered showers and lighter winds, which should offer some relief, although breezy conditions are still expected at times, with west winds on Tuesday and NW winds on Wednesday/Thursday, with only light rain amounts at most, amounting up to at least 0.1 to 0.2 inch locally while other places fail to see any rain. Temperatures will remain in the 50s, climbing up to the low 60s near NYC on Friday.
Longer Range: The next risk of rain will be during next weekend with the next brief warm surge as the trough temporarily weakens and moves out. There is some uncertainty on the exact intensity of the warm surge, although after yesterday’s exaggerated warm scenarios on the ECMWF model, the models have backed down to a more reasonable 1-2 day warm surge, with temperatures reaching the 70s in parts of the area with a risk of rain for Sunday and Monday. Once again, this does not appear to be a very moist storm, although the latest models show two rounds of rain: Light to moderate rain early on Sunday with the warm front, and rain and possible thunderstorms on Monday with the cold front. Any rain at this time will be a relief to the developing drought conditions, and although the rain outlook is still subject to change, it still does not appear to be a very wet storm. Windy conditions may perhaps return for this time frame as well. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.

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