April 4, 2012 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

Pattern Outlook: A trough will move into the region tonight and tomorrow, and will not leave until late next week at the earliest. Changes in the pattern, including the development of blocking near Greenland that has failed to develop throughout the entire winter, is resulting in a colder pattern for the region; had this pattern developed 2 months ago, it would have easily produced snow for the area, but given the time of the year, it’s too late for the pattern change to produce snow in the area. The trough will slightly weaken by Saturday/Sunday, resulting in temperatures ending up near-slightly above average, but as a strong low pressure retrogrades into Maine, the trough will intensify over the region, with the possibility for a weak storm to affect the area around the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain near to below average through parts of, if not most of next week, with temperatures likely warming by the end of next week. More information on the long range beyond this will be posted with an April overview in the Long Range Forecasts page with Thursday’s update.

Thursday – Monday: Mostly sunny skies will continue in this time frame. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s on Thursday and Friday, and the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday. Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday and Monday as the cutoff low moves into Maine and the cold air mass approaches the area, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s again, with mid 60s near NYC. Breezy winds are possible on Monday.

Tuesday – Friday: The chilly air mass will be in place during this time frame, with below average temperatures expected. Highs are likely to generally end up in the lower to upper 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to mid 40s across the rest of the area. Should a weak coastal low form, it will likely do so around Tuesday, when more clouds are expected with slightly cooler temperatures along with a risk of showers, although at least as of now it does not appear that such a storm would produce heavy rain for the area; heavier rain is a possibility, but at this time does not have much support. Temperatures are likely to warm up by the end of next week and towards next weekend as well, but it does not appear that more sustained above average temperatures will be quick to return.

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